In 30 seconds: The Strait of Hormuz has reopened following a US-Iran ceasefire framework and nuclear deal negotiations, sending oil prices sharply lower from recent highs while analysts debate the strategic winners and losers of the conflict. US equity markets staged one of their fastest recoveries in decades, with the S&P 500 crossing 7,100 for the first time and the Nasdaq-100 posting a 13-day winning streak, even as investor sentiment surveys remain unusually bearish. Options market participants are flagging unusual and extreme positioning — including massive SPX call surges, large institutional risk reversals, and parabolic 0DTE volumes — as traders debate whether the rally is driven by genuine fundamentals or forced short-covering and FOMO. Analysts including LukeGromen argue that gold is the standout asset of the Trump era as the US dollar's reserve currency status erodes, with the gold/oil and gold/SPX ratios both trending in gold's favor since Trump's second inauguration.
The Strait of Hormuz is open. The Strait of Hormuz is flowing again, and the oil market is doing what oil markets do when the world's most important chokepoint unclenches: repricing everything, violently. Dated Brent slipped below $100 per barrel for the first time since March 11th, with physical differentials in the key pricing window collapsing by more than 10 dollars from just days earlier. Across crude, refined products, and natural gas, the complex is down 8%-12%. An estimated half billion barrels of Gulf oil went unproduced due to the blockade and forced shut-ins. The Brent prompt timespread still sits at $4 per barrel, exceptionally elevated relative to any other normal period. Backwardation is coming off across the full Brent curve. Last week only 10-15 crossings were permitted under the initial framework. Trump commented on the nuclear framework, suggesting an actual deal is approaching. The conflict revealed real gaps in US military readiness — running out of interceptor missiles against a country described as not even a top-10 power, pulling Patriots from Korea, and evacuating 1,500 people from the 5th Fleet's Bahrain headquarters in such a hurry they couldn't take their pets. Natural gas, meanwhile, is back to pre-war levels; lower than it was in the first quarter of 2025. Gold closed at $4,868.60, up 1.74% on the day.
The S&P 500 closed at 7,126.06 on 2026-04-17, up 1.20% on the day, after crossing above 7,100 for the first time. A year ago the index sat at 5,300. Five years ago, 4,200. Ten years ago, 2,100. The technology sector surged 20% over the last 13 trading days; the only times it moved faster were coming out of Covid (April 2020) and the Financial Crisis (March 2009). Oracle $ORCL alone gained 28.4% week to date, while the average S&P 500 software stock rose 12.7%. NVIDIA $NVDA now commands a market cap of $4.9 trillion, roughly 772x the size of Campbell Soup $CPB at $6.3 billion. The US stock market completed one of its fastest turnarounds in at least 36 years. The S&P 500 rallied 9.8% in 10 days, its 20th best 10-day rally. It swung from oversold to overbought in just 11 days, the fastest such move since the 1982 lows, when the record was set in six days. And yet: AAII bulls hit a four-week low even as the index printed all-time highs, a combination that has NEVER happened before. The rally has been described as one of the most hated in memory, rivaled perhaps only by the initial phases of the Covid comeback in March 2020.
Something strange is happening in the options market, and the strangeness has a familiar shape. Consider the institutional flow. For the second day in a row, a bank has put on a massive 7,000 strike combo/risk reversal: short ~3,0000 calls and long ~3,0000 puts. The market maker sits on the other side of that trade, meaning the dealer community is now long ~3,0000 calls and short ~3,0000 puts at the 7,000 strike. For scale, that clip is comparable to the JPM collar. Andy Constan holds long put spreads and short CLZ6 as alpha positions. The portfolio lost 3bp on the day. Andy Constan is short CLZ6. Economic conditions have been largely unchanged from Feb 27th through March 30th and still unchanged, and the financial conditions index is unchanged. Short interest across all assets sits at just 2-4% of total market cap.
Gold closed at $4,868.60 on 2026-04-17, up 1.74% on the day, and the metal's admirers would like you to know that the price is the least interesting part of the story. The more interesting part is what gold is doing relative to everything else. Trump inaugurated for second term. The thesis involves a much weaker dollar, a much stronger yuan, and much of the materials needed to build coming from China. The analyst describes himself as bullish on America but not on the Empire. And that is a good thing for Americans. The counterargument comes from the balance-of-payments crowd. Gold, indifferent to the debate, keeps going up.
Here is what moved this week.
S&P 500: 7,126.06, up 1.20% on the day
Gold: $4,868.60, up 1.74% on the day
US Dollar (DXY): 98.19, down 0.03% on the day
WTI crude: $83.05, down 12.29% on the day
Gas (per gallon): $4.12, up 0.07% on the week
Continuing claims: 1,818,000, up 1.73% on the week
Average hourly earnings: $37.38, up 0.24% on the month