— Weekly Macro Report

Week of April 21, 2026

Leading regime: Overheating · 28.8%Data as of 2026-04-21 00:00 UTCDownload PDF ↓

Freshness

This snapshot is more than a day old. The next engine run refreshes it. As of April 21, 2026.

The US macro picture points to Overheating (29% probability, moderate confidence), with Inflation Shock as the main alternative at 26%. Growth is slowing, inflation is firming, and geopolitical shock is moderate. The main tension comes from core cpi at 2.6% yoy, below trend.

— US Macro RegimeAs of April 21, 2026

Leading regime

Overheating

28.8%probabilityConfidence: Moderate

Too hot. Growth and prices both running warm, which keeps the Fed in the room.

Closest alternative: Inflation Shock at 25.9% · Overheating +0.6 pts on the day

All five regimes

Cooling22.7%
Soft Landing21.2%
OverheatingLeading28.8%
Inflation ShockRunner-up25.9%
Contraction1.4%

— 90-day history

The run-up to this week

CoolingSoft LandingOverheatingInflation ShockContraction

2026-01-20 → 2026-04-21

— US internals

The four axes

Growth
Slowing
Score42.7 / 100
Momentum: Stable↓ -1.8 wk
Is the economy expanding or slowing. Jobs, output, spending.
Inflation
Firming
Score56.2 / 100
Momentum: Surging↓ -0.9 wk
How fast prices are rising, and whether the trend is up or down.
Financial Conditions
Neutral
Score45.6 / 100
Momentum: Stable↓ -1.3 wk
How tight money is. Yields, credit spreads, the cost of borrowing.
Geopolitical Shock
Moderate
Score53.7 / 100
Momentum: Declining↓ -5.3 wk
Stress from outside the model. Oil, war risk, market volatility.

— Key drivers

What holds the call up, and what argues against it

Confirming

Points that support the current regime call

core PCE at 3.0% YoY, well above trend
headline CPI at 3.3% YoY, well above trend
gasoline prices well above trend

Disconfirming

Points that argue against it

core CPI at 2.6% YoY, below trend
wage growth at 3.5% YoY, sharply lower

Market confirmationPartially confirming

Confirming

S&P 500, high-yield credit spreads, WTI crude oil

Diverging

10-year Treasury yield

— Week in review

What moved this week

Quantitative moves in the top 10% historically. The model is repricing significantly. Versus April 14, 2026.

Regime probabilities

Cooling22.7%+1.6
Soft Landing21.2%+0.9
Overheating28.8%+0.7
Inflation Shock25.9%-3.3
Contraction1.4%+0.1

Internals

GrowthSlowing42.7↓ -1.8
InflationFirming56.2↓ -0.9
Financial ConditionsNeutral45.6↓ -1.3
Geopolitical ShockModerate53.7↓ -5.3

— Asset playbook

Positioning read and the empirical record

The engine’s read, by asset class

EquitiesCautious, late-cycle risk
Growth is running hot but firming inflation and neutral financial conditions cap the upside for equities.
RatesYields biased higher
Surging inflation keeps yields biased higher as the Fed stays on hold.
CreditCarry positive, spreads uncertain
Solid growth supports carry, but firming inflation creates spread uncertainty.
DollarUSD firm
Firming inflation and firm growth keep the dollar supported.
GoldRange-bound
Gold is range-bound as strong growth offsets the inflation bid.
OilConstructive
Strong demand and the Hormuz blockade keep oil constructive.

How assets behaved historically in Overheating

Annualized figures across every past day the model scored this regime. History, not a forecast.

Asset	Ann. return	Volatility	Sharpe
Nasdaq 100QQQ	+27.1%	19.5%	1.39
S&P 500SPY	+17.5%	14.5%	1.21
GoldGLD	+12.4%	15.3%	0.81
Emerging MarketsVWO	+12.4%	17.5%	0.71
Developed MarketsVEA	+7.1%	14.9%	0.48
Russell 2000IWM	+5.8%	19.2%	0.30
HY CorporateHYG	+5.1%	4.7%	1.09
TIPSTIP	+4.3%	4.0%	1.08
IG CorporateLQD	+3.2%	5.5%	0.58
7-10Y TreasuryIEF	+2.2%	5.2%	0.42
EnergyXLE	-4.6%	23.5%	-0.20

Nasdaq 100
Vol 19.5% · Sharpe 1.39
+27.1%
S&P 500
Vol 14.5% · Sharpe 1.21
+17.5%
Gold
Vol 15.3% · Sharpe 0.81
+12.4%
Emerging Markets
Vol 17.5% · Sharpe 0.71
+12.4%
Developed Markets
Vol 14.9% · Sharpe 0.48
+7.1%
Russell 2000
Vol 19.2% · Sharpe 0.30
+5.8%
HY Corporate
Vol 4.7% · Sharpe 1.09
+5.1%
TIPS
Vol 4.0% · Sharpe 1.08
+4.3%
IG Corporate
Vol 5.5% · Sharpe 0.58
+3.2%
7-10Y Treasury
Vol 5.2% · Sharpe 0.42
+2.2%
Energy
Vol 23.5% · Sharpe -0.20
-4.6%

— Leading / lagging

Signal alignment

Leading signals

Overheating32.9%

Fast-moving market and survey data. Where the economy may be heading.

Lagging signals

Cooling28.0%

Confirmed hard data. Where the economy demonstrably is.

Signal alignmentDiverging

The two layers disagree, so the regime is contested. Leading signals lean Overheating; lagging signals lean Cooling. Leading signals typically lead the confirmed data by about 6 weeks.

— Market context

How the tracked assets did this week

Nasdaq 100QQQ+2.5%
Russell 2000IWM+2.2%
S&P 500SPY+1.4%
Emerging MarketsVWO+0.4%
EnergyXLE-0.1%
HY CorporateHYG-0.2%
TIPSTIP-0.3%
IG CorporateLQD-0.3%
7-10Y TreasuryIEF-0.4%
Developed MarketsVEA-1.6%
GoldGLD-3.5%

— Household impact

What this week means for your money

The levels the model watches, and the tools that turn them into your number.

Your mortgage and borrowing
4.3%
10-year Treasury yield
Mortgage rates track the 10-year Treasury, not the Fed's overnight rate. This is the number that sets your monthly payment.
Mortgage Calculator Fed Rate Impact
Your purchasing power
2.6%
core CPI
This is how fast the stuff you buy is getting more expensive. Every point of it is a point off what your cash is worth a year from now.
Inflation Calculator Real Return
Your savings and cash
3.6%
fed funds rate
What a bank should be paying you to hold cash. If your savings account pays a lot less than this, it is quietly costing you.
Savings Rate Tracker Real Return
Your retirement and risk
Slowing
Growth is slowing right now, and growth is what decides whether the next few years treat a 401(k) kindly. Pressure-test the plan before the regime does.
Retirement Drawdown Recession Stress Test

— What to watch

The variables that would move the call

core PCE (YoY %)Inflation
Now: 3.0% YoY → Needs: about 2.8% · momentum away
headline CPI (YoY %)Inflation
Now: 3.3% YoY → Needs: about 3.1% · momentum away
capacity utilization (%)Growth
Now: 75.7% → Needs: about 76.5% · momentum neutral
crude oil ($)Geopolitical Shock
Needs: about $95 (down from $90) · momentum away
HY spread (%)Financial Conditions
Now: 2.9% → Needs: about 3.5% · momentum neutral
consumer sentimentGrowth
Now: 56.6 → Needs: about 57.9 · momentum neutral
nonfarm payrolls (3mo avg chg, K)Growth
Now: +0K/month → Needs: about +21K · momentum neutral
core CPI (YoY %)Inflation
Now: 2.6% YoY → Needs: about 2.4% · momentum away
2s10s curve (pp)Financial Conditions
Now: 0.5 → Needs: higher · momentum neutral

Watch the prints that move these. Economic calendar →

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— What would change my mind

The price of being wrong

core PCE at 3.0% YoY supports Overheating, but core cpi at 2.6% yoy keeps Inflation Shock in play.

Evidence against the call

core CPI at 2.6% YoY, below trend
wage growth at 3.5% YoY, sharply lower

The call flips toward Inflation Shock if…

A transition to Inflation Shock would require core PCE to move higher, headline CPI to move higher, and capacity utilization to shift higher. Momentum is broadly moving in the right direction, but gaps remain. capacity utilization and crude oil are already near transition-compatible levels. Assumes other conditions remain constant.

— Personal Stakes Signal

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Sources & method

Every number on this page is produced by the Personal Stakes US macro engine and read straight from its published output. The website does not recompute the model, re-rank regimes, or invent values. Where a figure is missing, the section is left out rather than guessed.

Reference date: April 21, 2026
Data as of: 2026-04-21 00:00 UTC
Run trigger: major macro release

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