Historical snapshot

This is the regime read as it stood on March 3, 2026, from that day’s model output. See today’s regime →

— US Macro RegimeAs of March 3, 2026

Leading regime

Inflation Shock

27.6%probabilityConfidence: Moderate

Prices are the story, and not in a good way. Stocks and bonds can lose together.

Closest alternative: Overheating at 25.8% · Inflation Shock +2.0 pts on the day

All five regimes

Cooling22.2%
Soft Landing22.8%
OverheatingRunner-up25.8%
Inflation ShockLeading27.6%
Contraction1.6%

Freshness

This snapshot is more than a day old. The next engine run refreshes it. As of March 3, 2026.

The US macro picture points to Inflation Shock (28% probability, moderate confidence), with Overheating as the main alternative at 26%. Growth is slowing, inflation is sticky, and geopolitical shock is elevated. The main tension comes from core cpi at 2.5% yoy, well below trend.

— What changed

What moved that day

— The four internals

Under the hood

Growth
Slowing
Score43.1 / 100
Momentum: Rising
Is the economy expanding or slowing. Jobs, output, spending.
Inflation
Sticky
Score48.5 / 100
Momentum: Rising
How fast prices are rising, and whether the trend is up or down.
Financial Conditions
Neutral
Score47.3 / 100
Momentum: Stable
How tight money is. Yields, credit spreads, the cost of borrowing.
Geopolitical Shock
Elevated
Score70.7 / 100
Momentum: Surging
Stress from outside the model. Oil, war risk, market volatility.

— Leading / lagging

Firming or breaking down

Leading signals

Overheating30.9%

Fast-moving market and survey data. Where the economy may be heading.

Lagging signals

Inflation Shock30.9%

Confirmed hard data. Where the economy demonstrably is.

Signal alignmentDiverging

The two layers disagree, so the regime is contested. Leading signals lean Overheating; lagging signals lean Inflation Shock. Leading signals typically lead the confirmed data by about 6 weeks.

— What's next

Where it could go from here

Overheating25.8%Primary alternative
A transition to Overheating would require GPR Index to move lower, core CPI to move significantly higher, and core PCE to move significantly higher. Momentum is broadly moving in the right direction, but gaps remain. nonfarm payrolls is already near transition-compatible levels. Assumes other conditions remain constant.
- ↑ GPR Index · moderate gap
- ↑ core CPI (YoY %) · large gap
- ↑ core PCE (YoY %) · large gap
- ↑ nonfarm payrolls (3mo avg chg, K) · small gap
- ↑ crude oil ($) · moderate gap
Soft Landing22.8%Primary alternative
A transition to Soft Landing would require GPR Index to move lower, nonfarm payrolls to shift higher, and crude oil to move lower. nonfarm payrolls and consumer sentiment are already near transition-compatible levels. Assumes other conditions remain constant.
- ↑ GPR Index · moderate gap
- ↑ nonfarm payrolls (3mo avg chg, K) · small gap
- ↑ crude oil ($) · moderate gap
- ↑ consumer sentiment · small gap
- → 2s10s curve (pp) · moderate gap
Cooling22.2%Primary alternative
A transition to Cooling would require GPR Index to move lower, core CPI to shift higher, and core PCE to shift higher. Momentum is broadly moving in the right direction, but gaps remain. core CPI and core PCE are already near transition-compatible levels. Assumes other conditions remain constant.
- ↑ GPR Index · moderate gap
- ↑ core CPI (YoY %) · small gap
- ↑ core PCE (YoY %) · small gap
- ↑ nonfarm payrolls (3mo avg chg, K) · small gap
- → 2s10s curve (pp) · moderate gap

— Drivers

What held the call up

Confirming

Points that support the current regime call

core PCE at 3.1% YoY, well above trend
crude oil well above trend
industrial production +1.4% YoY, above trend

Disconfirming

Points that argue against it

core CPI at 2.5% YoY, well below trend
geopolitical risk index at 372, sharply higher

Market confirmationPartially confirming

Confirming

S&P 500, gold, high-yield credit spreads, WTI crude oil

Diverging

10-year Treasury yield

— Asset implications

What this regime has meant for markets

The engine’s read, by asset class

EquitiesPressured
RatesPressured
CreditPressured
DollarFirmer
GoldFavorable
OilFavorable

How assets behaved historically in Inflation Shock

Annualized figures across every past day the model scored this regime. History, not a forecast.

Asset	Ann. return	Volatility	Sharpe
EnergyXLE	+70.6%	33.3%	2.12
Russell 2000IWM	+26.6%	27.4%	0.97
S&P 500SPY	+17.4%	22.6%	0.77
Nasdaq 100QQQ	+12.3%	28.3%	0.43
Developed MarketsVEA	+10.8%	21.6%	0.50
HY CorporateHYG	+3.6%	10.3%	0.35
Emerging MarketsVWO	-0.8%	23.3%	-0.04
TIPSTIP	-2.7%	7.6%	-0.35
GoldGLD	-3.4%	18.6%	-0.18
IG CorporateLQD	-5.8%	9.8%	-0.59
7-10Y TreasuryIEF	-9.8%	8.0%	-1.22

Energy
Vol 33.3% · Sharpe 2.12
+70.6%
Russell 2000
Vol 27.4% · Sharpe 0.97
+26.6%
S&P 500
Vol 22.6% · Sharpe 0.77
+17.4%
Nasdaq 100
Vol 28.3% · Sharpe 0.43
+12.3%
Developed Markets
Vol 21.6% · Sharpe 0.50
+10.8%
HY Corporate
Vol 10.3% · Sharpe 0.35
+3.6%
Emerging Markets
Vol 23.3% · Sharpe -0.04
-0.8%
TIPS
Vol 7.6% · Sharpe -0.35
-2.7%
Gold
Vol 18.6% · Sharpe -0.18
-3.4%
IG Corporate
Vol 9.8% · Sharpe -0.59
-5.8%
7-10Y Treasury
Vol 8.0% · Sharpe -1.22
-9.8%

Sources & method

Every number on this page is produced by the Personal Stakes US macro engine and read straight from its published output. The website does not recompute the model, re-rank regimes, or invent values. Where a figure is missing, the section is left out rather than guessed.

Reference date: March 3, 2026
Data as of: 2026-03-03 00:00 UTC
Run trigger: major macro release