Historical snapshot

This is the regime read as it stood on March 30, 2026, from that day’s model output. See today’s regime →

— US Macro RegimeAs of March 30, 2026

Leading regime

Inflation Shock

32.7%probabilityConfidence: Moderate

Prices are the story, and not in a good way. Stocks and bonds can lose together.

Closest alternative: Overheating at 24.4% · Inflation Shock 0.0 pts on the day

All five regimes

Cooling21.3%
Soft Landing20.3%
OverheatingRunner-up24.4%
Inflation ShockLeading32.7%
Contraction1.3%

Freshness

This snapshot is more than a day old. The next engine run refreshes it. As of March 30, 2026.

The economy is in an Inflation Shock regime driven by sharp increases in crude oil prices that are pushing gasoline costs well above normal levels. Core PCE inflation at 3.1% annually remains stuck well above the Federal Reserve's target, indicating persistent price pressures beyond just energy. Elevated geopolitical tensions are amplifying these inflationary forces while financial conditions remain restrictive and economic growth shows signs of slowing.

— What changed

What moved that day

majorBiggest move

Financial conditions shifted from neutral to restrictive (53.8 to 55.8)

majorGold stance changed from Favorable to Positive but conflicted
moderateCooling up 1.0% to 21.3% (was 20.3%)
moderateSoft Landing up 1.0% to 20.3% (was 19.3%)
moderateOverheating down 1.0% to 24.4% (was 25.4%)
moderateInflation Shock down 1.0% to 32.7% (was 33.7%)
moderateGrowth momentum shifted from rising to declining
moderateInflation momentum shifted from surging to rising
moderateFinancial conditions momentum shifted from surging to rising
moderateGeopolitical shock score down 3.1 to 71.2 (was 74.3)

— The four internals

Under the hood

Growth
Slowing
Score43.8 / 100
Momentum: Declining↑ +0.2 wk
Is the economy expanding or slowing. Jobs, output, spending.
Inflation
Sticky
Score53.4 / 100
Momentum: Rising→ 0.0 wk
How fast prices are rising, and whether the trend is up or down.
Financial Conditions
Restrictive
Score55.8 / 100
Momentum: Rising↑ +2.0 wk
How tight money is. Yields, credit spreads, the cost of borrowing.
Geopolitical Shock
Elevated
Score71.2 / 100
Momentum: Surging↓ -3.1 wk
Stress from outside the model. Oil, war risk, market volatility.

— Leading / lagging

Firming or breaking down

Leading signals

Inflation Shock34.1%

Fast-moving market and survey data. Where the economy may be heading.

Lagging signals

Inflation Shock30.8%

Confirmed hard data. Where the economy demonstrably is.

Signal alignmentAligned

The two layers point the same way, which puts the call on firmer ground. Leading signals lean Inflation Shock; lagging signals lean Inflation Shock.

— What's next

Where it could go from here

Overheating24.4%Primary alternative
A transition to Overheating would require crude oil to move lower, core CPI to move higher, and core PCE to move higher. Current momentum is working against this transition. nonfarm payrolls and 10-year yield are already near transition-compatible levels. Assumes other conditions remain constant.
- ↑ crude oil ($) · moderate gap
- ↑ core CPI (YoY %) · moderate gap
- ↑ core PCE (YoY %) · moderate gap
- ↓ nonfarm payrolls (3mo avg chg, K) · small gap
- ↑ 10-year yield (%) · small gap
Cooling21.3%Primary alternative
A transition to Cooling would require crude oil to move lower, nonfarm payrolls to shift higher, and VIX to move lower. Current momentum is working against this transition. nonfarm payrolls and 10-year yield are already near transition-compatible levels. Assumes other conditions remain constant.
- ↑ crude oil ($) · moderate gap
- ↓ nonfarm payrolls (3mo avg chg, K) · small gap
- ↑ VIX · moderate gap
- ↑ gasoline ($/gal) · moderate gap
- ↑ 10-year yield (%) · small gap
Soft Landing20.3%Primary alternative
A transition to Soft Landing would require crude oil to move lower, nonfarm payrolls to shift higher, and VIX to move lower. Current momentum is working against this transition. nonfarm payrolls and consumer sentiment are already near transition-compatible levels. Assumes other conditions remain constant.
- ↑ crude oil ($) · moderate gap
- ↓ nonfarm payrolls (3mo avg chg, K) · small gap
- ↑ VIX · moderate gap
- ↑ gasoline ($/gal) · moderate gap
- ↓ consumer sentiment · small gap

— Drivers

What held the call up

Confirming

Points that support the current regime call

crude oil sharply higher
core PCE at 3.1% YoY, well above trend
gasoline prices well above trend

Disconfirming

Points that argue against it

core CPI at 2.5% YoY, well below trend
headline CPI at 2.4% YoY, below trend

Market confirmationPartially confirming

Confirming

S&P 500, 10-year Treasury yield, high-yield credit spreads, WTI crude oil

Diverging

gold

— Asset implications

What this regime has meant for markets

The engine’s read, by asset class

EquitiesNegative
Slowing growth and sticky inflation from the Hormuz blockade create a dual headwind for risk assets.
RatesYields biased higher
Inflation momentum is rising while growth is slowing, keeping yields biased higher as the market prices out cuts.
CreditSpreads vulnerable
Sticky inflation and rising financial conditions compress risk appetite, leaving spread products under pressure.
DollarUSD-supportive
Safe-haven demand and restrictive financial conditions support the dollar as the Hormuz blockade sustains uncertainty.
GoldPositive but conflicted
The regime favors gold as an inflation hedge, but current price action is not fully confirming as dollar strength crowds out the gold bid.
OilStrongly supportive
Oil is both a driver and beneficiary of the Hormuz blockade, with rising inflation momentum reinforcing the feedback loop.

How assets behaved historically in Inflation Shock

Annualized figures across every past day the model scored this regime. History, not a forecast.

Asset	Ann. return	Volatility	Sharpe
EnergyXLE	+70.6%	33.3%	2.12
Russell 2000IWM	+26.6%	27.4%	0.97
S&P 500SPY	+17.4%	22.6%	0.77
Nasdaq 100QQQ	+12.3%	28.3%	0.43
Developed MarketsVEA	+10.8%	21.6%	0.50
HY CorporateHYG	+3.6%	10.3%	0.35
Emerging MarketsVWO	-0.8%	23.3%	-0.04
TIPSTIP	-2.7%	7.6%	-0.35
GoldGLD	-3.4%	18.6%	-0.18
IG CorporateLQD	-5.8%	9.8%	-0.59
7-10Y TreasuryIEF	-9.8%	8.0%	-1.22

Energy
Vol 33.3% · Sharpe 2.12
+70.6%
Russell 2000
Vol 27.4% · Sharpe 0.97
+26.6%
S&P 500
Vol 22.6% · Sharpe 0.77
+17.4%
Nasdaq 100
Vol 28.3% · Sharpe 0.43
+12.3%
Developed Markets
Vol 21.6% · Sharpe 0.50
+10.8%
HY Corporate
Vol 10.3% · Sharpe 0.35
+3.6%
Emerging Markets
Vol 23.3% · Sharpe -0.04
-0.8%
TIPS
Vol 7.6% · Sharpe -0.35
-2.7%
Gold
Vol 18.6% · Sharpe -0.18
-3.4%
IG Corporate
Vol 9.8% · Sharpe -0.59
-5.8%
7-10Y Treasury
Vol 8.0% · Sharpe -1.22
-9.8%

Sources & method

Every number on this page is produced by the Personal Stakes US macro engine and read straight from its published output. The website does not recompute the model, re-rank regimes, or invent values. Where a figure is missing, the section is left out rather than guessed.

Reference date: March 30, 2026
Data as of: 2026-03-30 23:05 UTC
Run trigger: major macro release