Historical snapshot

This is the regime read as it stood on April 9, 2026, from that day’s model output. See today’s regime →

— US Macro RegimeAs of April 9, 2026
Leading regime

Inflation Shock

31.2%probabilityConfidence: Low

Prices are the story, and not in a good way. Stocks and bonds can lose together.

Closest alternative: Overheating at 26.2% · Inflation Shock -0.7 pts on the day

All five regimes

  • Cooling20.5%
  • Soft Landing20.8%
  • OverheatingRunner-up26.2%
  • Inflation ShockLeading31.2%
  • Contraction1.3%
Freshness

This snapshot is more than a day old. The next engine run refreshes it. As of April 9, 2026.

The economy is in a Inflation Shock regime at 31.2% probability with low confidence. Energy-driven price pressures — crude oil sharply higher and gasoline prices well above trend — are reinforcing core PCE at 3.0% YoY, well above trend, painting a consistent supply-side inflation picture. However, confidence remains low because core CPI at 2.5% YoY, well below trend and wage growth at 3.5% YoY, sharply lower suggest the inflation impulse is uneven, keeping Overheating as the main alternative at 26.2%. Growth is slowing, inflation is sticky, financial conditions are neutral, and geopolitical shock is elevated.

— What changed

What moved that day

majorBiggest move

S&P 500 flipped from confirming to diverging

Quantitative moves above the 75th percentile. The model is responding to meaningful shifts in the data. Compared with April 2, 2026 (5 sessions ago).

  • majorhigh-yield credit spreads flipped from confirming to diverging
  • moderateCooling up 0.5% to 20.5% (was 20.0%)
  • moderateOverheating up 1.0% to 26.2% (was 25.2%)
  • moderateInflation Shock down 1.9% to 31.2% (was 33.1%)
  • moderateInflation momentum shifted from surging to rising
  • moderateFinancial conditions score down 3.3 to 50.1 (was 53.4)
  • moderateFinancial conditions momentum shifted from surging to rising
  • moderateGeopolitical shock score down 7.2 to 66.0 (was 73.2)
  • moderateNew confirming driver: core PCE at 3.0% YoY, well above trend
  • moderateConfirming driver dropped: core PCE at 3.1% YoY, well above trend

— The four internals

Under the hood

  • Growth

    Slowing

    Score44.5 / 100
    Momentum: Stable↓ -0.3 wk

    Is the economy expanding or slowing. Jobs, output, spending.

  • Inflation

    Sticky

    Score50.8 / 100
    Momentum: Rising↓ -0.2 wk

    How fast prices are rising, and whether the trend is up or down.

  • Financial Conditions

    Neutral

    Score50.1 / 100
    Momentum: Rising↓ -3.3 wk

    How tight money is. Yields, credit spreads, the cost of borrowing.

  • Geopolitical Shock

    Elevated

    Score66.0 / 100
    Momentum: Surging↓ -7.2 wk

    Stress from outside the model. Oil, war risk, market volatility.

— Leading / lagging

Firming or breaking down

Leading signals

Overheating31.5%

Fast-moving market and survey data. Where the economy may be heading.

Lagging signals

Inflation Shock31.2%

Confirmed hard data. Where the economy demonstrably is.

Signal alignmentDiverging

The two layers disagree, so the regime is contested. Leading signals lean Overheating; lagging signals lean Inflation Shock. Leading signals typically lead the confirmed data by about 6 weeks.

— What's next

Where it could go from here

  • Overheating26.2%Primary alternative

    A transition to Overheating would require core PCE to move higher, core CPI to move higher, and crude oil to move lower. Momentum is broadly moving in the right direction, but gaps remain. consumer sentiment is already near transition-compatible levels. Assumes other conditions remain constant.

    • ↑ core PCE (YoY %) · moderate gap
    • ↑ core CPI (YoY %) · moderate gap
    • ↑ crude oil ($) · moderate gap
    • ↑ wage growth (YoY %) · moderate gap
    • → consumer sentiment · small gap
  • Soft Landing20.8%Primary alternative

    A transition to Soft Landing would require crude oil to move lower, gasoline to move lower, and consumer sentiment to shift higher. Current momentum is working against this transition. consumer sentiment and nonfarm payrolls are already near transition-compatible levels. Assumes other conditions remain constant.

    • ↑ crude oil ($) · moderate gap
    • ↑ gasoline ($/gal) · moderate gap
    • → consumer sentiment · small gap
    • → nonfarm payrolls (3mo avg chg, K) · small gap
    • ↑ 2s10s curve (pp) · small gap
  • Cooling20.5%Primary alternative

    A transition to Cooling would require core PCE to shift higher, core CPI to shift higher, and crude oil to move lower. Momentum is broadly moving in the right direction, but gaps remain. core PCE and core CPI are already near transition-compatible levels. Assumes other conditions remain constant.

    • ↑ core PCE (YoY %) · small gap
    • ↑ core CPI (YoY %) · small gap
    • ↑ crude oil ($) · moderate gap
    • → consumer sentiment · small gap
    • ↑ 2s10s curve (pp) · small gap

— Drivers

What held the call up

Confirming

Points that support the current regime call

  • core PCE at 3.0% YoY, well above trend
  • crude oil sharply higher
  • gasoline prices well above trend

Disconfirming

Points that argue against it

  • core CPI at 2.5% YoY, well below trend
  • wage growth at 3.5% YoY, sharply lower
Market confirmationMixed

Confirming

10-year Treasury yield, WTI crude oil

Diverging

S&P 500, gold, high-yield credit spreads

— Asset implications

What this regime has meant for markets

The engine’s read, by asset class

  • EquitiesNegative

    Slowing growth and sticky inflation from the Hormuz blockade create a dual headwind for risk assets.

  • RatesYields biased higher

    Inflation momentum is rising while growth is slowing, keeping yields biased higher as the market prices out cuts.

  • CreditSpreads vulnerable

    Sticky inflation and rising financial conditions compress risk appetite, leaving spread products under pressure.

  • DollarUSD-supportive

    Safe-haven demand and neutral financial conditions support the dollar as the Hormuz blockade sustains uncertainty.

  • GoldPositive but conflicted

    The regime favors gold as an inflation hedge, but current price action is not fully confirming as dollar strength crowds out the gold bid.

  • OilStrongly supportive

    Oil is both a driver and beneficiary of the Hormuz blockade, with rising inflation momentum reinforcing the feedback loop.

How assets behaved historically in Inflation Shock

Annualized figures across every past day the model scored this regime. History, not a forecast.

  • Energy

    Vol 33.3% · Sharpe 2.12

    +70.6%

  • Russell 2000

    Vol 27.4% · Sharpe 0.97

    +26.6%

  • S&P 500

    Vol 22.6% · Sharpe 0.77

    +17.4%

  • Nasdaq 100

    Vol 28.3% · Sharpe 0.43

    +12.3%

  • Developed Markets

    Vol 21.6% · Sharpe 0.50

    +10.8%

  • HY Corporate

    Vol 10.3% · Sharpe 0.35

    +3.6%

  • Emerging Markets

    Vol 23.3% · Sharpe -0.04

    -0.8%

  • TIPS

    Vol 7.6% · Sharpe -0.35

    -2.7%

  • Gold

    Vol 18.6% · Sharpe -0.18

    -3.4%

  • IG Corporate

    Vol 9.8% · Sharpe -0.59

    -5.8%

  • 7-10Y Treasury

    Vol 8.0% · Sharpe -1.22

    -9.8%
Sources & method

Every number on this page is produced by the Personal Stakes US macro engine and read straight from its published output. The website does not recompute the model, re-rank regimes, or invent values. Where a figure is missing, the section is left out rather than guessed.

Reference date
April 9, 2026
Data as of
2026-04-09 00:00 UTC
Run trigger
major macro release

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