Historical snapshot

This is the regime read as it stood on April 14, 2026, from that day’s model output. See today’s regime →

— US Macro RegimeAs of April 14, 2026
Leading regime

Inflation Shock

29.2%probabilityConfidence: Low

Prices are the story, and not in a good way. Stocks and bonds can lose together.

Closest alternative: Overheating at 28.1% · Inflation Shock -1.5 pts on the day

All five regimes

  • Cooling21.1%
  • Soft Landing20.3%
  • OverheatingRunner-up28.1%
  • Inflation ShockLeading29.2%
  • Contraction1.3%
Freshness

This snapshot is more than a day old. The next engine run refreshes it. As of April 14, 2026.

The economy is in a Inflation Shock regime at 29.2% probability with low confidence. Inflation is firming even as growth is slowing, with core PCE at 3.0% YoY, well above trend and headline CPI at 3.3% YoY, well above trend providing the clearest support. Overheating remains the main alternative at 28.1%, reflecting the mixed price signals and elevated geopolitical risk that cloud the picture.

— What changed

What moved that day

majorBiggest move

Overheating up 2.3% to 28.1% (was 25.8%)

Quantitative moves in the top 10% historically. The model is repricing significantly. Compared with April 7, 2026 (5 sessions ago).

  • majorInflation Shock down 2.7% to 29.2% (was 31.9%)
  • majorInflation shifted from sticky to firming (50.7 to 57.1)
  • majorS&P 500 flipped from confirming to diverging
  • majorWTI crude oil flipped from confirming to diverging
  • moderateCooling up 0.8% to 21.1% (was 20.3%)
  • moderateFinancial conditions score down 5.1 to 46.9 (was 52.0)
  • moderateFinancial conditions momentum shifted from rising to stable
  • moderateGeopolitical shock score down 11.5 to 59.0 (was 70.5)
  • moderateGeopolitical shock momentum shifted from surging to rising
  • moderateNew confirming driver: core PCE at 3.0% YoY, well above trend
  • moderateNew confirming driver: headline CPI at 3.3% YoY, well above trend
  • moderateConfirming driver dropped: core PCE at 3.1% YoY, well above trend
  • moderateConfirming driver dropped: crude oil sharply higher

— The four internals

Under the hood

  • Growth

    Slowing

    Score44.5 / 100
    Momentum: Stable↓ -0.3 wk

    Is the economy expanding or slowing. Jobs, output, spending.

  • Inflation

    Firming

    Score57.1 / 100
    Momentum: Surging↑ +6.4 wk

    How fast prices are rising, and whether the trend is up or down.

  • Financial Conditions

    Neutral

    Score46.9 / 100
    Momentum: Stable↓ -5.1 wk

    How tight money is. Yields, credit spreads, the cost of borrowing.

  • Geopolitical Shock

    Elevated

    Score59.0 / 100
    Momentum: Rising↓ -11.5 wk

    Stress from outside the model. Oil, war risk, market volatility.

— Leading / lagging

Firming or breaking down

Leading signals

Overheating32.5%

Fast-moving market and survey data. Where the economy may be heading.

Lagging signals

Inflation Shock30.2%

Confirmed hard data. Where the economy demonstrably is.

Signal alignmentDiverging

The two layers disagree, so the regime is contested. Leading signals lean Overheating; lagging signals lean Inflation Shock. Leading signals typically lead the confirmed data by about 6 weeks.

— What's next

Where it could go from here

  • Overheating28.1%Primary alternative

    A transition to Overheating would require core PCE to move higher, headline CPI to move higher, and core CPI to move higher. Momentum is broadly moving in the right direction, but gaps remain. crude oil and consumer sentiment are already near transition-compatible levels. Assumes other conditions remain constant.

    • ↑ core PCE (YoY %) · moderate gap
    • ↑ headline CPI (YoY %) · moderate gap
    • ↑ core CPI (YoY %) · moderate gap
    • ↑ crude oil ($) · small gap
    • → consumer sentiment · small gap
  • Cooling21.1%Primary alternative

    A transition to Cooling would require crude oil to shift lower, consumer sentiment to shift higher, and nonfarm payrolls to shift higher. Current momentum is working against this transition. crude oil and consumer sentiment are already near transition-compatible levels. Assumes other conditions remain constant.

    • ↑ crude oil ($) · small gap
    • → consumer sentiment · small gap
    • → nonfarm payrolls (3mo avg chg, K) · small gap
    • → HY spread (%) · moderate gap
    • → capacity utilization (%) · small gap
  • Soft Landing20.3%Primary alternative

    A transition to Soft Landing would require core PCE to shift lower, headline CPI to shift lower, and crude oil to shift lower. Current momentum is working against this transition. core PCE and headline CPI are already near transition-compatible levels. Assumes other conditions remain constant.

    • ↑ core PCE (YoY %) · small gap
    • ↑ headline CPI (YoY %) · small gap
    • ↑ crude oil ($) · small gap
    • → consumer sentiment · small gap
    • → HY spread (%) · moderate gap

— Drivers

What held the call up

Confirming

Points that support the current regime call

  • core PCE at 3.0% YoY, well above trend
  • headline CPI at 3.3% YoY, well above trend
  • gasoline prices well above trend

Disconfirming

Points that argue against it

  • core CPI at 2.6% YoY, below trend
  • wage growth at 3.5% YoY, sharply lower
Market confirmationDiverging

Confirming

10-year Treasury yield

Diverging

S&P 500, gold, high-yield credit spreads, WTI crude oil

— Asset implications

What this regime has meant for markets

The engine’s read, by asset class

  • EquitiesNegative

    Slowing growth and firming inflation from the Hormuz blockade create a dual headwind for risk assets.

  • RatesYields biased higher

    Inflation momentum is surging while growth is slowing, keeping yields biased higher as the market prices out cuts.

  • CreditSpreads vulnerable

    Firming inflation and stable financial conditions compress risk appetite, leaving spread products under pressure.

  • DollarUSD-supportive

    Safe-haven demand and neutral financial conditions support the dollar as the Hormuz blockade sustains uncertainty.

  • GoldPositive but conflicted

    The regime favors gold as an inflation hedge, but current price action is not fully confirming as dollar strength crowds out the gold bid.

  • OilStrongly supportive

    Oil is both a driver and beneficiary of the Hormuz blockade, with surging inflation momentum reinforcing the feedback loop.

How assets behaved historically in Inflation Shock

Annualized figures across every past day the model scored this regime. History, not a forecast.

  • Energy

    Vol 33.3% · Sharpe 2.12

    +70.6%

  • Russell 2000

    Vol 27.4% · Sharpe 0.97

    +26.6%

  • S&P 500

    Vol 22.6% · Sharpe 0.77

    +17.4%

  • Nasdaq 100

    Vol 28.3% · Sharpe 0.43

    +12.3%

  • Developed Markets

    Vol 21.6% · Sharpe 0.50

    +10.8%

  • HY Corporate

    Vol 10.3% · Sharpe 0.35

    +3.6%

  • Emerging Markets

    Vol 23.3% · Sharpe -0.04

    -0.8%

  • TIPS

    Vol 7.6% · Sharpe -0.35

    -2.7%

  • Gold

    Vol 18.6% · Sharpe -0.18

    -3.4%

  • IG Corporate

    Vol 9.8% · Sharpe -0.59

    -5.8%

  • 7-10Y Treasury

    Vol 8.0% · Sharpe -1.22

    -9.8%
Sources & method

Every number on this page is produced by the Personal Stakes US macro engine and read straight from its published output. The website does not recompute the model, re-rank regimes, or invent values. Where a figure is missing, the section is left out rather than guessed.

Reference date
April 14, 2026
Data as of
2026-04-14 00:00 UTC
Run trigger
major macro release

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