Historical snapshot

This is the regime read as it stood on April 20, 2026, from that day’s model output. See today’s regime →

— US Macro RegimeAs of April 20, 2026

Leading regime

Overheating

28.2%probabilityConfidence: Low

Too hot. Growth and prices both running warm, which keeps the Fed in the room.

Closest alternative: Inflation Shock at 27.2% · Overheating 0.0 pts on the day

All five regimes

Cooling22.2%
Soft Landing21.0%
OverheatingLeading28.2%
Inflation ShockRunner-up27.2%
Contraction1.4%

Freshness

This snapshot is more than a day old. The next engine run refreshes it. As of April 20, 2026.

The economy is in a Overheating regime at 28.2% probability. Inflation Shock is the main alternative at 27.2%. Growth is slowing and inflation is firming, with core PCE at 3.0% YoY, well above trend reinforcing persistent price pressures, while financial conditions remain neutral and geopolitical shock is moderate.

— What changed

What moved that day

majorBiggest move

Regime call changed from Inflation Shock to Overheating

Quantitative moves in the top 10% historically. The model is repricing significantly. Compared with April 13, 2026 (5 sessions ago).

majorInflation Shock down 3.5% to 27.2% (was 30.7%)
majorGeopolitical shock shifted from elevated to moderate (61.6 to 54.6)
majorEquities stance changed from Negative to Cautious, late-cycle risk
majorRates stance changed from Yields biased higher to Yields biased higher
majorCredit stance changed from Spreads vulnerable to Carry positive, spreads uncertain
majorDollar stance changed from USD-supportive to USD firm
majorGold stance changed from Positive but conflicted to Range-bound
majorOil stance changed from Strongly supportive to Constructive
major10-year Treasury yield flipped from confirming to diverging
majorS&P 500 flipped from diverging to confirming
majorhigh-yield credit spreads flipped from diverging to confirming
moderateCooling up 1.7% to 22.2% (was 20.5%)
moderateSoft Landing up 0.9% to 21.0% (was 20.1%)
moderateOverheating up 0.8% to 28.2% (was 27.4%)
moderateGrowth score down 2.4 to 42.1 (was 44.5)
moderateFinancial conditions score down 2.5 to 45.1 (was 47.6)
moderateGeopolitical shock momentum shifted from surging to stable

— The four internals

Under the hood

Growth
Slowing
Score42.1 / 100
Momentum: Stable↓ -2.4 wk
Is the economy expanding or slowing. Jobs, output, spending.
Inflation
Firming
Score55.8 / 100
Momentum: Surging↓ -1.5 wk
How fast prices are rising, and whether the trend is up or down.
Financial Conditions
Neutral
Score45.1 / 100
Momentum: Stable↓ -2.5 wk
How tight money is. Yields, credit spreads, the cost of borrowing.
Geopolitical Shock
Moderate
Score54.6 / 100
Momentum: Stable↓ -7.0 wk
Stress from outside the model. Oil, war risk, market volatility.

— Leading / lagging

Firming or breaking down

Leading signals

Overheating32.5%

Fast-moving market and survey data. Where the economy may be heading.

Lagging signals

Inflation Shock31.4%

Confirmed hard data. Where the economy demonstrably is.

Signal alignmentDiverging

The two layers disagree, so the regime is contested. Leading signals lean Overheating; lagging signals lean Inflation Shock. Leading signals typically lead the confirmed data by about 6 weeks.

— What's next

Where it could go from here

Inflation Shock27.2%Primary alternative
A transition to Inflation Shock would require core PCE to move higher, headline CPI to move higher, and capacity utilization to shift higher. Momentum is broadly moving in the right direction, but gaps remain. capacity utilization and HY spread are already near transition-compatible levels. Assumes other conditions remain constant.
- ↑ core PCE (YoY %) · moderate gap
- ↑ headline CPI (YoY %) · moderate gap
- → capacity utilization (%) · small gap
- ↓ HY spread (%) · small gap
- → crude oil ($) · small gap
Cooling22.2%Primary alternative
A transition to Cooling would require capacity utilization to shift higher, consumer sentiment to shift higher, and nonfarm payrolls to shift higher. Current momentum is working against this transition. capacity utilization and consumer sentiment are already near transition-compatible levels. Assumes other conditions remain constant.
- → capacity utilization (%) · small gap
- → consumer sentiment · small gap
- → nonfarm payrolls (3mo avg chg, K) · small gap
- ↓ HY spread (%) · moderate gap
- ↓ 2s10s curve (pp) · moderate gap
Soft Landing21.0%Primary alternative
A transition to Soft Landing would require core PCE to shift lower, headline CPI to shift lower, and core CPI to shift lower. Current momentum is working against this transition. core PCE and headline CPI are already near transition-compatible levels. Assumes other conditions remain constant.
- ↑ core PCE (YoY %) · small gap
- ↑ headline CPI (YoY %) · small gap
- ↑ core CPI (YoY %) · small gap
- → capacity utilization (%) · small gap
- ↓ HY spread (%) · moderate gap

— Drivers

What held the call up

Confirming

Points that support the current regime call

core PCE at 3.0% YoY, well above trend
headline CPI at 3.3% YoY, well above trend
gasoline prices well above trend

Disconfirming

Points that argue against it

core CPI at 2.6% YoY, below trend
wage growth at 3.5% YoY, sharply lower

Market confirmationMixed

Confirming

S&P 500, high-yield credit spreads

Diverging

10-year Treasury yield, WTI crude oil

— Asset implications

What this regime has meant for markets

The engine’s read, by asset class

EquitiesCautious, late-cycle risk
Growth is running hot but firming inflation and neutral financial conditions cap the upside for equities.
RatesYields biased higher
Surging inflation keeps yields biased higher as the Fed stays on hold.
CreditCarry positive, spreads uncertain
Solid growth supports carry, but firming inflation creates spread uncertainty.
DollarUSD firm
Firming inflation and firm growth keep the dollar supported.
GoldRange-bound
Gold is range-bound as strong growth offsets the inflation bid.
OilConstructive
Strong demand and the Hormuz blockade keep oil constructive.

How assets behaved historically in Overheating

Annualized figures across every past day the model scored this regime. History, not a forecast.

Asset	Ann. return	Volatility	Sharpe
Nasdaq 100QQQ	+27.1%	19.5%	1.39
S&P 500SPY	+17.5%	14.5%	1.21
GoldGLD	+12.4%	15.3%	0.81
Emerging MarketsVWO	+12.4%	17.5%	0.71
Developed MarketsVEA	+7.1%	14.9%	0.48
Russell 2000IWM	+5.8%	19.2%	0.30
HY CorporateHYG	+5.1%	4.7%	1.09
TIPSTIP	+4.3%	4.0%	1.08
IG CorporateLQD	+3.2%	5.5%	0.58
7-10Y TreasuryIEF	+2.2%	5.2%	0.42
EnergyXLE	-4.6%	23.5%	-0.20

Nasdaq 100
Vol 19.5% · Sharpe 1.39
+27.1%
S&P 500
Vol 14.5% · Sharpe 1.21
+17.5%
Gold
Vol 15.3% · Sharpe 0.81
+12.4%
Emerging Markets
Vol 17.5% · Sharpe 0.71
+12.4%
Developed Markets
Vol 14.9% · Sharpe 0.48
+7.1%
Russell 2000
Vol 19.2% · Sharpe 0.30
+5.8%
HY Corporate
Vol 4.7% · Sharpe 1.09
+5.1%
TIPS
Vol 4.0% · Sharpe 1.08
+4.3%
IG Corporate
Vol 5.5% · Sharpe 0.58
+3.2%
7-10Y Treasury
Vol 5.2% · Sharpe 0.42
+2.2%
Energy
Vol 23.5% · Sharpe -0.20
-4.6%

Sources & method

Every number on this page is produced by the Personal Stakes US macro engine and read straight from its published output. The website does not recompute the model, re-rank regimes, or invent values. Where a figure is missing, the section is left out rather than guessed.

Reference date: April 20, 2026
Data as of: 2026-04-20 00:00 UTC
Run trigger: major macro release