Historical snapshot

This is the regime read as it stood on May 11, 2026, from that day’s model output. See today’s regime →

— US Macro RegimeAs of May 11, 2026

Leading regime

Overheating

29.0%probabilityConfidence: Moderate

Too hot. Growth and prices both running warm, which keeps the Fed in the room.

Closest alternative: Inflation Shock at 28.5% · Overheating 0.0 pts on the day

All five regimes

Cooling21.4%
Soft Landing19.8%
OverheatingLeading29.0%
Inflation ShockRunner-up28.5%
Contraction1.3%

Freshness

This snapshot is more than a day old. The next engine run refreshes it. As of May 11, 2026.

The US macro picture points to Overheating (29% probability, moderate confidence), with Inflation Shock as the main alternative at 28%. Growth is slowing, inflation is firming, and geopolitical shock is elevated. The main tension comes from core cpi at 2.6% yoy, below trend.

— What changed

What moved that day

majorBiggest move

Geopolitical shock shifted from moderate to elevated (54.9 to 55.1)

Quantitative moves below the historical median. The model's reading is stable, which may itself be the signal. Compared with May 4, 2026 (5 sessions ago).

moderateCooling down 0.9% to 21.4% (was 22.3%)
moderateSoft Landing down 0.6% to 19.8% (was 20.4%)
moderateInflation Shock up 1.6% to 28.5% (was 26.9%)
moderateFinancial conditions momentum shifted from stable to rising
moderateNew confirming driver: gasoline prices sharply higher
moderateConfirming driver dropped: gasoline prices well above trend

— The four internals

Under the hood

Growth
Slowing
Score41.8 / 100
Momentum: Stable↓ -0.2 wk
Is the economy expanding or slowing. Jobs, output, spending.
Inflation
Firming
Score60.9 / 100
Momentum: Surging↑ +1.6 wk
How fast prices are rising, and whether the trend is up or down.
Financial Conditions
Neutral
Score49.2 / 100
Momentum: Rising↑ +1.8 wk
How tight money is. Yields, credit spreads, the cost of borrowing.
Geopolitical Shock
Elevated
Score55.1 / 100
Momentum: Falling↑ +0.2 wk
Stress from outside the model. Oil, war risk, market volatility.

— Leading / lagging

Firming or breaking down

Leading signals

Overheating33.3%

Fast-moving market and survey data. Where the economy may be heading.

Lagging signals

Inflation Shock30.5%

Confirmed hard data. Where the economy demonstrably is.

Signal alignmentDiverging

The two layers disagree, so the regime is contested. Leading signals lean Overheating; lagging signals lean Inflation Shock. Leading signals typically lead the confirmed data by about 6 weeks.

— What's next

Where it could go from here

Inflation Shock28.5%Primary alternative
A transition to Inflation Shock would require core PCE to move higher, headline CPI to move higher, and consumer sentiment to shift higher. Momentum is broadly moving in the right direction, but gaps remain. consumer sentiment and crude oil are already near transition-compatible levels. Assumes other conditions remain constant.
- ↑ core PCE (YoY %) · moderate gap
- ↑ headline CPI (YoY %) · moderate gap
- → consumer sentiment · small gap
- ↓ crude oil ($) · small gap
- ↑ HY spread (%) · small gap
Cooling21.4%Primary alternative
A transition to Cooling would require consumer sentiment to shift higher, capacity utilization to shift higher, and nonfarm payrolls to shift higher. Momentum is broadly moving in the right direction, but gaps remain. consumer sentiment and capacity utilization are already near transition-compatible levels. Assumes other conditions remain constant.
- → consumer sentiment · small gap
- → capacity utilization (%) · small gap
- → nonfarm payrolls (3mo avg chg, K) · small gap
- ↓ crude oil ($) · small gap
- ↑ HY spread (%) · small gap
Soft Landing19.8%Credible alternative
A transition to Soft Landing would require core PCE to shift lower, headline CPI to shift lower, and core CPI to shift lower. Current momentum is working against this transition. core PCE and headline CPI are already near transition-compatible levels. Assumes other conditions remain constant.
- ↑ core PCE (YoY %) · small gap
- ↑ headline CPI (YoY %) · small gap
- ↑ core CPI (YoY %) · small gap
- → consumer sentiment · small gap
- ↑ HY spread (%) · small gap

— Drivers

What held the call up

Confirming

Points that support the current regime call

core PCE at 3.2% YoY, sharply higher
headline CPI at 3.3% YoY, well above trend
gasoline prices sharply higher

Disconfirming

Points that argue against it

core CPI at 2.6% YoY, below trend
consumer sentiment at 53.3, well below trend

Market confirmationPartially confirming

Confirming

S&P 500, 10-year Treasury yield, high-yield credit spreads

Diverging

WTI crude oil

— Asset implications

What this regime has meant for markets

The engine’s read, by asset class

EquitiesCautious, late-cycle risk
Growth is running hot but firming inflation and neutral financial conditions cap the upside for equities.
RatesYields biased higher
Surging inflation keeps yields biased higher as the Fed stays on hold.
CreditCarry positive, spreads uncertain
Solid growth supports carry, but firming inflation creates spread uncertainty.
DollarUSD firm
Firming inflation and firm growth keep the dollar supported.
GoldRange-bound
Gold is range-bound as strong growth offsets the inflation bid.
OilConstructive
Strong demand and the Hormuz blockade keep oil constructive.

How assets behaved historically in Overheating

Annualized figures across every past day the model scored this regime. History, not a forecast.

Asset	Ann. return	Volatility	Sharpe
Nasdaq 100QQQ	+27.1%	19.5%	1.39
S&P 500SPY	+17.5%	14.5%	1.21
GoldGLD	+12.4%	15.3%	0.81
Emerging MarketsVWO	+12.4%	17.5%	0.71
Developed MarketsVEA	+7.1%	14.9%	0.48
Russell 2000IWM	+5.8%	19.2%	0.30
HY CorporateHYG	+5.1%	4.7%	1.09
TIPSTIP	+4.3%	4.0%	1.08
IG CorporateLQD	+3.2%	5.5%	0.58
7-10Y TreasuryIEF	+2.2%	5.2%	0.42
EnergyXLE	-4.6%	23.5%	-0.20

Nasdaq 100
Vol 19.5% · Sharpe 1.39
+27.1%
S&P 500
Vol 14.5% · Sharpe 1.21
+17.5%
Gold
Vol 15.3% · Sharpe 0.81
+12.4%
Emerging Markets
Vol 17.5% · Sharpe 0.71
+12.4%
Developed Markets
Vol 14.9% · Sharpe 0.48
+7.1%
Russell 2000
Vol 19.2% · Sharpe 0.30
+5.8%
HY Corporate
Vol 4.7% · Sharpe 1.09
+5.1%
TIPS
Vol 4.0% · Sharpe 1.08
+4.3%
IG Corporate
Vol 5.5% · Sharpe 0.58
+3.2%
7-10Y Treasury
Vol 5.2% · Sharpe 0.42
+2.2%
Energy
Vol 23.5% · Sharpe -0.20
-4.6%

Sources & method

Every number on this page is produced by the Personal Stakes US macro engine and read straight from its published output. The website does not recompute the model, re-rank regimes, or invent values. Where a figure is missing, the section is left out rather than guessed.

Reference date: May 11, 2026
Data as of: 2026-05-11 00:00 UTC
Run trigger: major macro release