Historical snapshot

This is the regime read as it stood on May 14, 2026, from that day’s model output. See today’s regime →

— US Macro RegimeAs of May 14, 2026
Leading regime

Inflation Shock

29.7%probabilityConfidence: Low

Prices are the story, and not in a good way. Stocks and bonds can lose together.

Closest alternative: Overheating at 29.1% · Inflation Shock +0.2 pts on the day

All five regimes

  • Cooling20.8%
  • Soft Landing19.2%
  • OverheatingRunner-up29.1%
  • Inflation ShockLeading29.7%
  • Contraction1.2%
Freshness

This snapshot is more than a day old. The next engine run refreshes it. As of May 14, 2026.

The US macro picture points to Inflation Shock (30% probability, low confidence), with Overheating as the main alternative at 29%. Growth is slowing, inflation is firming, and geopolitical shock is elevated. The main tension comes from wage growth at 3.6% yoy, well below trend.

— What changed

What moved that day

majorBiggest move

Regime call changed from Overheating to Inflation Shock

Quantitative moves in the top 10% historically. The model is repricing significantly. Compared with May 7, 2026 (5 sessions ago).

  • majorGeopolitical shock shifted from moderate to elevated (55.0 to 57.2)
  • majorEquities stance changed from Cautious, late-cycle risk to Negative
  • majorRates stance changed from Yields biased higher to Yields biased higher
  • majorCredit stance changed from Carry positive, spreads uncertain to Spreads vulnerable
  • majorDollar stance changed from USD firm to USD-supportive
  • majorGold stance changed from Range-bound to Positive but conflicted
  • majorOil stance changed from Constructive to Strongly supportive
  • majorS&P 500 flipped from confirming to diverging
  • majorgold flipped from confirming to diverging
  • majorhigh-yield credit spreads flipped from confirming to diverging
  • majorWTI crude oil flipped from diverging to confirming
  • moderateCooling down 0.8% to 20.8% (was 21.6%)
  • moderateSoft Landing down 0.8% to 19.2% (was 20.0%)
  • moderateInflation Shock up 1.5% to 29.7% (was 28.2%)
  • moderateInflation score up 6.8 to 66.7 (was 59.9)
  • moderateFinancial conditions score up 3.0 to 51.4 (was 48.4)
  • moderateFinancial conditions momentum shifted from stable to rising
  • moderateGeopolitical shock momentum shifted from falling to declining
  • moderateNew confirming driver: headline CPI at 3.8% YoY, sharply higher
  • moderateConfirming driver dropped: headline CPI at 3.3% YoY, well above trend

— The four internals

Under the hood

  • Growth

    Slowing

    Score42.3 / 100
    Momentum: Stable↓ -0.1 wk

    Is the economy expanding or slowing. Jobs, output, spending.

  • Inflation

    Firming

    Score66.7 / 100
    Momentum: Surging↑ +6.8 wk

    How fast prices are rising, and whether the trend is up or down.

  • Financial Conditions

    Neutral

    Score51.4 / 100
    Momentum: Rising↑ +3.0 wk

    How tight money is. Yields, credit spreads, the cost of borrowing.

  • Geopolitical Shock

    Elevated

    Score57.2 / 100
    Momentum: Declining↑ +2.2 wk

    Stress from outside the model. Oil, war risk, market volatility.

— Leading / lagging

Firming or breaking down

Leading signals

Overheating33.4%

Fast-moving market and survey data. Where the economy may be heading.

Lagging signals

Inflation Shock30.7%

Confirmed hard data. Where the economy demonstrably is.

Signal alignmentDiverging

The two layers disagree, so the regime is contested. Leading signals lean Overheating; lagging signals lean Inflation Shock. Leading signals typically lead the confirmed data by about 6 weeks.

— What's next

Where it could go from here

  • Overheating29.1%Primary alternative

    A transition to Overheating would require headline CPI to shift higher, core PCE to shift higher, and gasoline to shift higher. Momentum is broadly moving in the right direction, but gaps remain. headline CPI and core PCE are already near transition-compatible levels. Assumes other conditions remain constant.

    • ↑ headline CPI (YoY %) · small gap
    • ↑ core PCE (YoY %) · small gap
    • ↑ gasoline ($/gal) · small gap
    • → consumer sentiment · moderate gap
    • → capacity utilization (%) · moderate gap
  • Cooling20.8%Primary alternative

    A transition to Cooling would require headline CPI to shift lower, core PCE to shift lower, and consumer sentiment to shift higher. headline CPI and core PCE are already near transition-compatible levels. Assumes other conditions remain constant.

    • ↑ headline CPI (YoY %) · small gap
    • ↑ core PCE (YoY %) · small gap
    • → consumer sentiment · small gap
    • ↓ crude oil ($) · small gap
    • ↑ 10-year yield (%) · small gap
  • Soft Landing19.2%Credible alternative

    A transition to Soft Landing would require headline CPI to move lower, core PCE to move lower, and consumer sentiment to shift higher. consumer sentiment and crude oil are already near transition-compatible levels. Assumes other conditions remain constant.

    • ↑ headline CPI (YoY %) · moderate gap
    • ↑ core PCE (YoY %) · moderate gap
    • → consumer sentiment · small gap
    • ↓ crude oil ($) · small gap
    • ↑ 10-year yield (%) · small gap

— Drivers

What held the call up

Confirming

Points that support the current regime call

  • headline CPI at 3.8% YoY, sharply higher
  • core PCE at 3.2% YoY, sharply higher
  • gasoline prices sharply higher

Disconfirming

Points that argue against it

  • wage growth at 3.6% YoY, well below trend
  • consumer sentiment at 53.3, well below trend
Market confirmationMixed

Confirming

10-year Treasury yield, WTI crude oil

Diverging

S&P 500, gold, high-yield credit spreads

— Asset implications

What this regime has meant for markets

The engine’s read, by asset class

  • EquitiesNegative

    Slowing growth and firming inflation from the Hormuz blockade create a dual headwind for risk assets.

  • RatesYields biased higher

    Inflation momentum is surging while growth is slowing, keeping yields biased higher as the market prices out cuts.

  • CreditSpreads vulnerable

    Firming inflation and rising financial conditions compress risk appetite, leaving spread products under pressure.

  • DollarUSD-supportive

    Safe-haven demand and neutral financial conditions support the dollar as the Hormuz blockade sustains uncertainty.

  • GoldPositive but conflicted

    The regime favors gold as an inflation hedge, but current price action is not fully confirming as dollar strength crowds out the gold bid.

  • OilStrongly supportive

    Oil is both a driver and beneficiary of the Hormuz blockade, with surging inflation momentum reinforcing the feedback loop.

How assets behaved historically in Inflation Shock

Annualized figures across every past day the model scored this regime. History, not a forecast.

  • Energy

    Vol 33.3% · Sharpe 2.12

    +70.6%

  • Russell 2000

    Vol 27.4% · Sharpe 0.97

    +26.6%

  • S&P 500

    Vol 22.6% · Sharpe 0.77

    +17.4%

  • Nasdaq 100

    Vol 28.3% · Sharpe 0.43

    +12.3%

  • Developed Markets

    Vol 21.6% · Sharpe 0.50

    +10.8%

  • HY Corporate

    Vol 10.3% · Sharpe 0.35

    +3.6%

  • Emerging Markets

    Vol 23.3% · Sharpe -0.04

    -0.8%

  • TIPS

    Vol 7.6% · Sharpe -0.35

    -2.7%

  • Gold

    Vol 18.6% · Sharpe -0.18

    -3.4%

  • IG Corporate

    Vol 9.8% · Sharpe -0.59

    -5.8%

  • 7-10Y Treasury

    Vol 8.0% · Sharpe -1.22

    -9.8%
Sources & method

Every number on this page is produced by the Personal Stakes US macro engine and read straight from its published output. The website does not recompute the model, re-rank regimes, or invent values. Where a figure is missing, the section is left out rather than guessed.

Reference date
May 14, 2026
Data as of
2026-05-14 00:00 UTC
Run trigger
major macro release

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