Historical snapshot

This is the regime read as it stood on May 25, 2026, from that day’s model output. See today’s regime →

— US Macro RegimeAs of May 25, 2026

Leading regime

Inflation Shock

29.6%probabilityConfidence: Low

Prices are the story, and not in a good way. Stocks and bonds can lose together.

Closest alternative: Overheating at 28.7% · Inflation Shock -0.1 pts on the day

All five regimes

Cooling20.9%
Soft Landing19.6%
OverheatingRunner-up28.7%
Inflation ShockLeading29.6%
Contraction1.2%

Freshness

This snapshot is more than a day old. The next engine run refreshes it. As of May 25, 2026.

The US macro picture points to Inflation Shock (30% probability, low confidence), with Overheating as the main alternative at 29%. Growth is slowing, inflation is firming, and geopolitical shock is moderate. The main tension comes from wage growth at 3.6% yoy, well below trend.

— What changed

What moved that day

majorBiggest move

Geopolitical shock shifted from elevated to moderate (58.9 to 54.5)

Quantitative moves near the historical median. Normal weekly variation. Compared with May 18, 2026 (5 sessions ago).

moderateOverheating down 0.6% to 28.7% (was 29.3%)
moderateFinancial conditions momentum shifted from surging to rising

— The four internals

Under the hood

Growth
Slowing
Score43.5 / 100
Momentum: Stable↓ -0.5 wk
Is the economy expanding or slowing. Jobs, output, spending.
Inflation
Firming
Score66.0 / 100
Momentum: Surging↓ -1.2 wk
How fast prices are rising, and whether the trend is up or down.
Financial Conditions
Neutral
Score53.3 / 100
Momentum: Rising→ 0.0 wk
How tight money is. Yields, credit spreads, the cost of borrowing.
Geopolitical Shock
Moderate
Score54.5 / 100
Momentum: Declining↓ -4.4 wk
Stress from outside the model. Oil, war risk, market volatility.

— Leading / lagging

Firming or breaking down

Leading signals

Overheating32.6%

Fast-moving market and survey data. Where the economy may be heading.

Lagging signals

Inflation Shock29.8%

Confirmed hard data. Where the economy demonstrably is.

Signal alignmentDiverging

The two layers disagree, so the regime is contested. Leading signals lean Overheating; lagging signals lean Inflation Shock. Leading signals typically lead the confirmed data by about 6 weeks.

— What's next

Where it could go from here

Overheating28.7%Primary alternative
A transition to Overheating would require headline CPI to shift higher, core PCE to shift higher, and consumer sentiment to shift higher. Momentum is broadly moving in the right direction, but gaps remain. headline CPI and core PCE are already near transition-compatible levels. Assumes other conditions remain constant.
- ↑ headline CPI (YoY %) · small gap
- ↑ core PCE (YoY %) · small gap
- → consumer sentiment · small gap
- ↑ gasoline ($/gal) · small gap
- ↑ wage growth (YoY %) · small gap
Cooling20.9%Primary alternative
A transition to Cooling would require headline CPI to shift lower, core PCE to shift lower, and consumer sentiment to shift higher. Current momentum is working against this transition. headline CPI and core PCE are already near transition-compatible levels. Assumes other conditions remain constant.
- ↑ headline CPI (YoY %) · small gap
- ↑ core PCE (YoY %) · small gap
- → consumer sentiment · small gap
- ↑ gasoline ($/gal) · small gap
- ↑ 10-year yield (%) · small gap
Soft Landing19.6%Credible alternative
A transition to Soft Landing would require headline CPI to move lower, core PCE to move lower, and consumer sentiment to shift higher. Current momentum is working against this transition. consumer sentiment and 10-year yield are already near transition-compatible levels. Assumes other conditions remain constant.
- ↑ headline CPI (YoY %) · moderate gap
- ↑ core PCE (YoY %) · moderate gap
- → consumer sentiment · small gap
- ↑ gasoline ($/gal) · moderate gap
- ↑ 10-year yield (%) · small gap

— Drivers

What held the call up

Confirming

Points that support the current regime call

headline CPI at 3.8% YoY, sharply higher
core PCE at 3.2% YoY, sharply higher
gasoline prices sharply higher

Disconfirming

Points that argue against it

wage growth at 3.6% YoY, well below trend
core CPI at 2.7% YoY, below trend

Market confirmationMixed

Confirming

10-year Treasury yield, WTI crude oil

Diverging

S&P 500, gold, high-yield credit spreads

— Asset implications

What this regime has meant for markets

The engine’s read, by asset class

EquitiesNegative
Slowing growth and firming inflation from the Hormuz blockade create a dual headwind for risk assets.
RatesYields biased higher
Inflation momentum is surging while growth is slowing, keeping yields biased higher as the market prices out cuts.
CreditSpreads vulnerable
Firming inflation and rising financial conditions compress risk appetite, leaving spread products under pressure.
DollarUSD-supportive
Safe-haven demand and neutral financial conditions support the dollar as the Hormuz blockade sustains uncertainty.
GoldPositive but conflicted
The regime favors gold as an inflation hedge, but current price action is not fully confirming as dollar strength crowds out the gold bid.
OilStrongly supportive
Oil is both a driver and beneficiary of the Hormuz blockade, with surging inflation momentum reinforcing the feedback loop.

How assets behaved historically in Inflation Shock

Annualized figures across every past day the model scored this regime. History, not a forecast.

Asset	Ann. return	Volatility	Sharpe
EnergyXLE	+70.6%	33.3%	2.12
Russell 2000IWM	+26.6%	27.4%	0.97
S&P 500SPY	+17.4%	22.6%	0.77
Nasdaq 100QQQ	+12.3%	28.3%	0.43
Developed MarketsVEA	+10.8%	21.6%	0.50
HY CorporateHYG	+3.6%	10.3%	0.35
Emerging MarketsVWO	-0.8%	23.3%	-0.04
TIPSTIP	-2.7%	7.6%	-0.35
GoldGLD	-3.4%	18.6%	-0.18
IG CorporateLQD	-5.8%	9.8%	-0.59
7-10Y TreasuryIEF	-9.8%	8.0%	-1.22

Energy
Vol 33.3% · Sharpe 2.12
+70.6%
Russell 2000
Vol 27.4% · Sharpe 0.97
+26.6%
S&P 500
Vol 22.6% · Sharpe 0.77
+17.4%
Nasdaq 100
Vol 28.3% · Sharpe 0.43
+12.3%
Developed Markets
Vol 21.6% · Sharpe 0.50
+10.8%
HY Corporate
Vol 10.3% · Sharpe 0.35
+3.6%
Emerging Markets
Vol 23.3% · Sharpe -0.04
-0.8%
TIPS
Vol 7.6% · Sharpe -0.35
-2.7%
Gold
Vol 18.6% · Sharpe -0.18
-3.4%
IG Corporate
Vol 9.8% · Sharpe -0.59
-5.8%
7-10Y Treasury
Vol 8.0% · Sharpe -1.22
-9.8%

Sources & method

Every number on this page is produced by the Personal Stakes US macro engine and read straight from its published output. The website does not recompute the model, re-rank regimes, or invent values. Where a figure is missing, the section is left out rather than guessed.

Reference date: May 25, 2026
Data as of: 2026-05-25 00:00 UTC
Run trigger: major macro release