Historical snapshot

This is the regime read as it stood on June 3, 2026, from that day’s model output. See today’s regime →

— US Macro RegimeAs of June 3, 2026

Leading regime

Overheating

29.3%probabilityConfidence: Moderate

Too hot. Growth and prices both running warm, which keeps the Fed in the room.

Closest alternative: Inflation Shock at 24.6% · Overheating +0.2 pts on the day

All five regimes

Cooling23.3%
Soft Landing21.0%
OverheatingLeading29.3%
Inflation ShockRunner-up24.6%
Contraction1.8%

Freshness

This snapshot is more than a day old. The next engine run refreshes it. As of June 3, 2026.

The US macro picture points to Overheating (29% probability, moderate confidence), with Inflation Shock as the main alternative at 25%. Growth is slowing, inflation is firming, and geopolitical shock is moderate. The main tension comes from consumer sentiment at 49.8, well below trend.

— What changed

What moved that day

majorBiggest move

Regime call changed from Inflation Shock to Overheating

Quantitative moves in the top 10% historically. The model is repricing significantly. Compared with May 27, 2026 (5 sessions ago).

majorInflation Shock down 4.2% to 24.6% (was 28.8%)
majorEquities stance changed from Negative to Cautious, late-cycle risk
majorRates stance changed from Yields biased higher to Yields biased higher
majorCredit stance changed from Spreads vulnerable to Carry positive, spreads uncertain
majorDollar stance changed from USD-supportive to USD firm
majorGold stance changed from Positive but conflicted to Range-bound
majorOil stance changed from Strongly supportive to Constructive
majorS&P 500 flipped from diverging to confirming
majorhigh-yield credit spreads flipped from diverging to confirming
moderateCooling up 1.9% to 23.3% (was 21.4%)
moderateSoft Landing up 1.2% to 21.0% (was 19.8%)
moderateOverheating up 0.6% to 29.3% (was 28.7%)
moderateContraction up 0.5% to 1.8% (was 1.3%)
moderateInflation score down 2.4 to 62.7 (was 65.1)
moderateInflation momentum shifted from surging to rising
moderateGeopolitical shock score down 9.9 to 41.2 (was 51.1)
moderateNew confirming driver: core PCE at 3.3% YoY, well above trend
moderateConfirming driver dropped: core PCE at 3.2% YoY, sharply higher

— The four internals

Under the hood

Growth
Slowing
Score42.8 / 100
Momentum: Stable↓ -0.7 wk
Is the economy expanding or slowing. Jobs, output, spending.
Inflation
Firming
Score62.7 / 100
Momentum: Rising↓ -2.4 wk
How fast prices are rising, and whether the trend is up or down.
Financial Conditions
Neutral
Score51.1 / 100
Momentum: Rising↓ -1.1 wk
How tight money is. Yields, credit spreads, the cost of borrowing.
Geopolitical Shock
Moderate
Score41.2 / 100
Momentum: Falling↓ -9.9 wk
Stress from outside the model. Oil, war risk, market volatility.

— Leading / lagging

Firming or breaking down

Leading signals

Overheating31.8%

Fast-moving market and survey data. Where the economy may be heading.

Lagging signals

Cooling27.9%

Confirmed hard data. Where the economy demonstrably is.

Signal alignmentDiverging

The two layers disagree, so the regime is contested. Leading signals lean Overheating; lagging signals lean Cooling. Leading signals typically lead the confirmed data by about 6 weeks.

— What's next

Where it could go from here

Inflation Shock24.6%Primary alternative
A transition to Inflation Shock would require headline CPI to move higher, core PCE to move higher, and consumer sentiment to shift higher. Momentum is broadly moving in the right direction, but gaps remain. consumer sentiment and HY spread are already near transition-compatible levels. Assumes other conditions remain constant.
- ↑ headline CPI (YoY %) · moderate gap
- ↑ core PCE (YoY %) · moderate gap
- → consumer sentiment · small gap
- ↑ HY spread (%) · small gap
- ↓ copper/gold ratio · moderate gap
Cooling23.3%Primary alternative
A transition to Cooling would require headline CPI to shift lower, core PCE to shift lower, and consumer sentiment to shift higher. Current momentum is working against this transition. headline CPI and core PCE are already near transition-compatible levels. Assumes other conditions remain constant.
- ↑ headline CPI (YoY %) · small gap
- ↑ core PCE (YoY %) · small gap
- → consumer sentiment · small gap
- ↑ HY spread (%) · small gap
- ↓ copper/gold ratio · small gap
Soft Landing21.0%Primary alternative
A transition to Soft Landing would require headline CPI to move lower, core PCE to move lower, and consumer sentiment to shift higher. Current momentum is working against this transition. consumer sentiment and HY spread are already near transition-compatible levels. Assumes other conditions remain constant.
- ↑ headline CPI (YoY %) · moderate gap
- ↑ core PCE (YoY %) · moderate gap
- → consumer sentiment · small gap
- ↑ HY spread (%) · small gap
- ↓ copper/gold ratio · small gap

— Drivers

What held the call up

Confirming

Points that support the current regime call

headline CPI at 3.8% YoY, sharply higher
core PCE at 3.3% YoY, well above trend
gasoline prices sharply higher

Disconfirming

Points that argue against it

consumer sentiment at 49.8, well below trend
nonfarm payrolls averaging +0K/month, below trend

Market confirmationPartially confirming

Confirming

S&P 500, 10-year Treasury yield, high-yield credit spreads

Diverging

WTI crude oil

— Asset implications

What this regime has meant for markets

The engine’s read, by asset class

EquitiesCautious, late-cycle risk
Growth is running hot but firming inflation and neutral financial conditions cap the upside for equities.
RatesYields biased higher
Rising inflation keeps yields biased higher as the Fed stays on hold.
CreditCarry positive, spreads uncertain
Solid growth supports carry, but firming inflation creates spread uncertainty.
DollarUSD firm
Firming inflation and firm growth keep the dollar supported.
GoldRange-bound
Gold is range-bound as strong growth offsets the inflation bid.
OilConstructive
Strong demand and the Hormuz blockade keep oil constructive.

How assets behaved historically in Overheating

Annualized figures across every past day the model scored this regime. History, not a forecast.

Asset	Ann. return	Volatility	Sharpe
Nasdaq 100QQQ	+27.1%	19.5%	1.39
S&P 500SPY	+17.5%	14.5%	1.21
GoldGLD	+12.4%	15.3%	0.81
Emerging MarketsVWO	+12.4%	17.5%	0.71
Developed MarketsVEA	+7.1%	14.9%	0.48
Russell 2000IWM	+5.8%	19.2%	0.30
HY CorporateHYG	+5.1%	4.7%	1.09
TIPSTIP	+4.3%	4.0%	1.08
IG CorporateLQD	+3.2%	5.5%	0.58
7-10Y TreasuryIEF	+2.2%	5.2%	0.42
EnergyXLE	-4.6%	23.5%	-0.20

Nasdaq 100
Vol 19.5% · Sharpe 1.39
+27.1%
S&P 500
Vol 14.5% · Sharpe 1.21
+17.5%
Gold
Vol 15.3% · Sharpe 0.81
+12.4%
Emerging Markets
Vol 17.5% · Sharpe 0.71
+12.4%
Developed Markets
Vol 14.9% · Sharpe 0.48
+7.1%
Russell 2000
Vol 19.2% · Sharpe 0.30
+5.8%
HY Corporate
Vol 4.7% · Sharpe 1.09
+5.1%
TIPS
Vol 4.0% · Sharpe 1.08
+4.3%
IG Corporate
Vol 5.5% · Sharpe 0.58
+3.2%
7-10Y Treasury
Vol 5.2% · Sharpe 0.42
+2.2%
Energy
Vol 23.5% · Sharpe -0.20
-4.6%

Sources & method

Every number on this page is produced by the Personal Stakes US macro engine and read straight from its published output. The website does not recompute the model, re-rank regimes, or invent values. Where a figure is missing, the section is left out rather than guessed.

Reference date: June 3, 2026
Data as of: 2026-06-03 00:00 UTC
Run trigger: major macro release