Historical snapshot

This is the regime read as it stood on June 16, 2026, from that day’s model output. See today’s regime →

— US Macro RegimeAs of June 16, 2026

Leading regime

Overheating

33.4%probabilityConfidence: Moderate

Too hot. Growth and prices both running warm, which keeps the Fed in the room.

Closest alternative: Cooling at 23.9% · Overheating +2.2 pts on the day

All five regimes

CoolingRunner-up23.9%
Soft Landing18.8%
OverheatingLeading33.4%
Inflation Shock19.0%
Contraction4.9%

Freshness

This snapshot is more than a day old. The next engine run refreshes it. As of June 16, 2026.

The US macro picture points to Overheating (33% probability, moderate confidence), with Cooling as the main alternative at 24%. Growth is slowing, inflation is firming, and geopolitical shock is moderate. The main tension comes from crude oil at $81, -22.6% over 20 days.

— What changed

What moved that day

majorBiggest move

Overheating up 3.8% to 33.4% (was 29.6%)

Quantitative moves in the top 10% historically. The model is repricing significantly. Compared with June 9, 2026 (5 sessions ago).

majorInflation Shock down 5.9% to 19.0% (was 24.9%)
majorContraction up 2.9% to 4.9% (was 2.0%)
major10-year Treasury yield flipped from confirming to diverging
majorS&P 500 flipped from diverging to confirming
moderateCooling up 1.1% to 23.9% (was 22.8%)
moderateSoft Landing down 1.9% to 18.8% (was 20.7%)
moderateFinancial conditions score down 2.8 to 50.2 (was 53.0)
moderateFinancial conditions momentum shifted from rising to declining
moderateGeopolitical shock score down 7.4 to 34.6 (was 42.0)
moderateNew confirming driver: headline CPI at 4.2% YoY, sharply higher
moderateConfirming driver dropped: headline CPI at 3.8% YoY, sharply higher

— The four internals

Under the hood

Growth
Slowing
Score43.8 / 100
Momentum: Stable↓ -0.3 wk
Is the economy expanding or slowing. Jobs, output, spending.
Inflation
Firming
Score60.7 / 100
Momentum: Stable↓ -1.0 wk
How fast prices are rising, and whether the trend is up or down.
Financial Conditions
Neutral
Score50.2 / 100
Momentum: Declining↓ -2.8 wk
How tight money is. Yields, credit spreads, the cost of borrowing.
Geopolitical Shock
Moderate
Score34.6 / 100
Momentum: Falling↓ -7.4 wk
Stress from outside the model. Oil, war risk, market volatility.

— Leading / lagging

Firming or breaking down

Leading signals

Overheating39.4%

Fast-moving market and survey data. Where the economy may be heading.

Lagging signals

Overheating28.4%

Confirmed hard data. Where the economy demonstrably is.

Signal alignmentAligned

The two layers point the same way, which puts the call on firmer ground. Leading signals lean Overheating; lagging signals lean Overheating.

— What's next

Where it could go from here

Cooling23.9%Primary alternative
A transition to Cooling would require consumer sentiment to shift higher, crude oil to move higher, and capacity utilization to shift higher. Current momentum is working against this transition. consumer sentiment and capacity utilization are already near transition-compatible levels. Assumes other conditions remain constant.
- ↑ consumer sentiment · small gap
- ↓ crude oil ($) · moderate gap
- ↑ capacity utilization (%) · small gap
- ↓ HY spread (%) · small gap
- ↓ 5Y breakeven inflation (%) · moderate gap
Inflation Shock19.0%Credible alternative
A transition to Inflation Shock would require headline CPI to move higher, core PCE to move higher, and consumer sentiment to shift higher. The key gap is large and momentum is moving away from transition-compatible levels. consumer sentiment and HY spread are already near transition-compatible levels. Assumes other conditions remain constant.
- → headline CPI (YoY %) · moderate gap
- → core PCE (YoY %) · moderate gap
- ↑ consumer sentiment · small gap
- ↓ crude oil ($) · large gap
- ↓ HY spread (%) · small gap
Soft Landing18.8%Credible alternative
A transition to Soft Landing would require headline CPI to shift lower, core PCE to shift lower, and consumer sentiment to shift higher. Current momentum is working against this transition. headline CPI and core PCE are already near transition-compatible levels. Assumes other conditions remain constant.
- → headline CPI (YoY %) · small gap
- → core PCE (YoY %) · small gap
- ↑ consumer sentiment · small gap
- ↓ crude oil ($) · moderate gap
- ↓ HY spread (%) · small gap

— Drivers

What held the call up

Confirming

Points that support the current regime call

headline CPI at 4.2% YoY, sharply higher
core PCE at 3.3% YoY, well above trend
gasoline prices well above trend

Disconfirming

Points that argue against it

crude oil at $81, -22.6% over 20 days
consumer sentiment at 49.8, well below trend

Market confirmationMixed

Confirming

S&P 500, high-yield credit spreads

Diverging

10-year Treasury yield, WTI crude oil

— Asset implications

What this regime has meant for markets

The engine’s read, by asset class

EquitiesCautious, late-cycle risk
Growth is running hot but firming inflation and neutral financial conditions cap the upside for equities.
RatesYields biased higher
Stable inflation keeps yields biased higher as the Fed stays on hold.
CreditCarry positive, spreads uncertain
Solid growth supports carry, but firming inflation creates spread uncertainty.
DollarUSD firm
Firming inflation and firm growth keep the dollar supported.
GoldRange-bound
Gold is range-bound as strong growth offsets the inflation bid.
OilConstructive
Strong demand and the Hormuz blockade keep oil constructive.

How assets behaved historically in Overheating

Annualized figures across every past day the model scored this regime. History, not a forecast.

Asset	Ann. return	Volatility	Sharpe
Nasdaq 100QQQ	+27.1%	19.5%	1.39
S&P 500SPY	+17.5%	14.5%	1.21
GoldGLD	+12.4%	15.3%	0.81
Emerging MarketsVWO	+12.4%	17.5%	0.71
Developed MarketsVEA	+7.1%	14.9%	0.48
Russell 2000IWM	+5.8%	19.2%	0.30
HY CorporateHYG	+5.1%	4.7%	1.09
TIPSTIP	+4.3%	4.0%	1.08
IG CorporateLQD	+3.2%	5.5%	0.58
7-10Y TreasuryIEF	+2.2%	5.2%	0.42
EnergyXLE	-4.6%	23.5%	-0.20

Nasdaq 100
Vol 19.5% · Sharpe 1.39
+27.1%
S&P 500
Vol 14.5% · Sharpe 1.21
+17.5%
Gold
Vol 15.3% · Sharpe 0.81
+12.4%
Emerging Markets
Vol 17.5% · Sharpe 0.71
+12.4%
Developed Markets
Vol 14.9% · Sharpe 0.48
+7.1%
Russell 2000
Vol 19.2% · Sharpe 0.30
+5.8%
HY Corporate
Vol 4.7% · Sharpe 1.09
+5.1%
TIPS
Vol 4.0% · Sharpe 1.08
+4.3%
IG Corporate
Vol 5.5% · Sharpe 0.58
+3.2%
7-10Y Treasury
Vol 5.2% · Sharpe 0.42
+2.2%
Energy
Vol 23.5% · Sharpe -0.20
-4.6%

Sources & method

Every number on this page is produced by the Personal Stakes US macro engine and read straight from its published output. The website does not recompute the model, re-rank regimes, or invent values. Where a figure is missing, the section is left out rather than guessed.

Reference date: June 16, 2026
Data as of: 2026-06-16 00:00 UTC
Run trigger: major macro release