Historical snapshot

This is the regime read as it stood on July 3, 2026, from that day’s model output. See today’s regime →

— US Macro RegimeAs of July 3, 2026
Leading regime

Contraction

26.3%probabilityConfidence: Low

The downturn case. Growth is breaking and the labor market is following.

Closest alternative: Overheating at 24.5% · Contraction -0.7 pts on the day

All five regimes

  • Cooling21.6%
  • Soft Landing14.3%
  • OverheatingRunner-up24.5%
  • Inflation Shock13.3%
  • ContractionLeading26.3%
Freshness

This snapshot is more than a day old. The next engine run refreshes it. As of July 3, 2026.

The US macro picture points to Contraction (26% probability, low confidence), with Overheating as the main alternative at 24%. Growth is slowing, inflation is firming, and geopolitical shock is moderate. The main tension comes from headline cpi at 4.2% yoy, sharply higher.

— What changed

What moved that day

majorBiggest move

Regime call changed from Overheating to Contraction

Quantitative moves in the top 10% historically. The model is repricing significantly. Compared with June 26, 2026 (5 sessions ago).

  • majorOverheating down 3.8% to 24.5% (was 28.3%)
  • majorInflation Shock down 3.0% to 13.3% (was 16.3%)
  • majorContraction up 6.4% to 26.3% (was 19.9%)
  • majorEquities stance changed from Cautious, late-cycle risk to Risk-off
  • majorRates stance changed from Yields biased higher to Rally, yields falling
  • majorCredit stance changed from Carry positive, spreads uncertain to Spreads widening
  • majorDollar stance changed from USD firm to Strong USD, safe haven
  • majorGold stance changed from Range-bound to Positive but conflicted
  • majorOil stance changed from Constructive to Demand collapse, bearish
  • majorgold flipped from confirming to diverging
  • major10-year Treasury yield flipped from diverging to confirming
  • majorS&P 500 flipped from diverging to confirming
  • majorWTI crude oil flipped from diverging to confirming
  • majorhigh-yield credit spreads flipped from diverging to confirming
  • moderateFinancial conditions momentum shifted from declining to stable
  • moderateNew confirming driver: consumer sentiment at 44.8, sharply lower
  • moderateNew confirming driver: crude oil sharply lower
  • moderateNew confirming driver: wage growth at 3.5% YoY, well below trend
  • moderateConfirming driver dropped: core PCE at 3.4% YoY, well above trend
  • moderateConfirming driver dropped: headline CPI at 4.2% YoY, sharply higher
  • moderateConfirming driver dropped: retail sales +6.9% YoY, above trend

— The four internals

Under the hood

  • Growth

    Slowing

    Score42.6 / 100
    Momentum: Stable↓ -0.2 wk

    Is the economy expanding or slowing. Jobs, output, spending.

  • Inflation

    Firming

    Score59.8 / 100
    Momentum: Declining↑ +0.2 wk

    How fast prices are rising, and whether the trend is up or down.

  • Financial Conditions

    Neutral

    Score52.3 / 100
    Momentum: Stable↑ +0.1 wk

    How tight money is. Yields, credit spreads, the cost of borrowing.

  • Geopolitical Shock

    Moderate

    Score32.5 / 100
    Momentum: Falling↓ -1.5 wk

    Stress from outside the model. Oil, war risk, market volatility.

— Leading / lagging

Firming or breaking down

Leading signals

Contraction42.4%

Fast-moving market and survey data. Where the economy may be heading.

Lagging signals

Overheating28.9%

Confirmed hard data. Where the economy demonstrably is.

Signal alignmentDiverging

The two layers disagree, so the regime is contested. Leading signals lean Contraction; lagging signals lean Overheating. Leading signals typically lead the confirmed data by about 6 weeks.

— What's next

Where it could go from here

  • Overheating24.5%Primary alternative

    A transition to Overheating would require headline CPI to move higher, core PCE to move higher, and consumer sentiment to shift higher. Current momentum is working against this transition. consumer sentiment is already near transition-compatible levels. Assumes other conditions remain constant.

    • ↓ headline CPI (YoY %) · moderate gap
    • ↓ core PCE (YoY %) · moderate gap
    • → consumer sentiment · small gap
    • ↓ crude oil ($) · moderate gap
    • ↓ wage growth (YoY %) · moderate gap
  • Cooling21.6%Primary alternative

    A transition to Cooling would require consumer sentiment to shift higher, crude oil to move higher, and capacity utilization to shift higher. Current momentum is working against this transition. consumer sentiment and capacity utilization are already near transition-compatible levels. Assumes other conditions remain constant.

    • → consumer sentiment · small gap
    • ↓ crude oil ($) · moderate gap
    • → capacity utilization (%) · small gap
    • ↓ 5Y breakeven inflation (%) · moderate gap
    • → USD index · small gap

— Drivers

What held the call up

Confirming

Points that support the current regime call

  • consumer sentiment at 44.8, sharply lower
  • crude oil sharply lower
  • wage growth at 3.5% YoY, well below trend

Disconfirming

Points that argue against it

  • headline CPI at 4.2% YoY, sharply higher
  • core PCE at 3.4% YoY, well above trend
Market confirmationMixed

Confirming

S&P 500, 10-year Treasury yield, high-yield credit spreads, WTI crude oil

Diverging

gold

— Asset implications

What this regime has meant for markets

The engine’s read, by asset class

  • EquitiesRisk-off

    Growth at 42.6 with stable momentum signals rising recession risk for equities.

  • RatesRally, yields falling

    Contracting growth drives a duration rally as the market prices in aggressive rate cuts.

  • CreditSpreads widening

    Recession risk and neutral financial conditions widen spreads as defaults rise.

  • DollarStrong USD, safe haven

    Flight to safety and dollar liquidity demand drive strong USD in a contraction.

  • GoldPositive but conflicted

    Gold benefits from rate cuts and safe-haven demand as growth contracts, but current price action is not fully confirming as dollar strength crowds out the gold bid.

  • OilDemand collapse, bearish

    Demand collapse from contracting growth overwhelms supply factors.

How assets behaved historically in Contraction

Annualized figures across every past day the model scored this regime. History, not a forecast.

  • Nasdaq 100

    Vol 58.4% · Sharpe 0.60

    +34.9%

  • Gold

    Vol 26.0% · Sharpe 1.07

    +27.9%

  • S&P 500

    Vol 58.7% · Sharpe 0.14

    +8.5%

  • 7-10Y Treasury

    Vol 12.3% · Sharpe 0.61

    +7.5%

  • TIPS

    Vol 17.2% · Sharpe 0.19

    +3.3%

  • IG Corporate

    Vol 33.6% · Sharpe -0.11

    -3.7%

  • Energy

    Vol 98.7% · Sharpe -0.06

    -5.5%

  • HY Corporate

    Vol 33.3% · Sharpe -0.44

    -14.7%

  • Developed Markets

    Vol 56.2% · Sharpe -0.40

    -22.5%

  • Russell 2000

    Vol 70.1% · Sharpe -0.42

    -29.7%

  • Emerging Markets

    Vol 56.9% · Sharpe -0.63

    -36.1%
Sources & method

Every number on this page is produced by the Personal Stakes US macro engine and read straight from its published output. The website does not recompute the model, re-rank regimes, or invent values. Where a figure is missing, the section is left out rather than guessed.

Reference date
July 3, 2026
Data as of
2026-07-03 00:00 UTC
Run trigger
major macro release

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