Historical snapshot

This is the regime read as it stood on July 9, 2026, from that day’s model output. See today’s regime →

— US Macro RegimeAs of July 9, 2026

Leading regime

Overheating

27.7%probabilityConfidence: Moderate

Too hot. Growth and prices both running warm, which keeps the Fed in the room.

Closest alternative: Cooling at 23.0% · Overheating +1.4 pts on the day

All five regimes

CoolingRunner-up23.0%
Soft Landing15.8%
OverheatingLeading27.7%
Inflation Shock13.5%
Contraction20.0%

Freshness

This snapshot is more than a day old. The next engine run refreshes it. As of July 9, 2026.

The US macro picture points to Overheating (28% probability, moderate confidence), with Cooling as the main alternative at 23%. Growth is slowing, inflation is firming, and geopolitical shock is moderate. The main tension comes from consumer sentiment at 44.8, sharply lower.

— What changed

What moved that day

majorBiggest move

Regime call changed from Contraction to Overheating

Quantitative moves in the top 10% historically. The model is repricing significantly. Compared with July 2, 2026 (5 sessions ago).

majorOverheating up 3.6% to 27.7% (was 24.1%)
majorContraction down 7.0% to 20.0% (was 27.0%)
majorEquities stance changed from Risk-off to Cautious, late-cycle risk
majorRates stance changed from Rally, yields falling to Yields biased higher
majorCredit stance changed from Spreads widening to Carry positive, spreads uncertain
majorDollar stance changed from Strong USD, safe haven to USD firm
majorGold stance changed from Positive but conflicted to Range-bound
majorOil stance changed from Demand collapse, bearish to Constructive
majorWTI crude oil flipped from confirming to diverging
majorhigh-yield credit spreads flipped from diverging to confirming
moderateCooling up 1.9% to 23.0% (was 21.1%)
moderateSoft Landing up 1.8% to 15.8% (was 14.0%)
moderateFinancial conditions momentum shifted from stable to rising
moderateGeopolitical shock score up 2.5 to 35.0 (was 32.5)
moderateNew confirming driver: core PCE at 3.4% YoY, well above trend
moderateNew confirming driver: headline CPI at 4.2% YoY, sharply higher
moderateNew confirming driver: retail sales +6.9% YoY, above trend
moderateConfirming driver dropped: consumer sentiment at 44.8, sharply lower
moderateConfirming driver dropped: crude oil sharply lower
moderateConfirming driver dropped: wage growth at 3.5% YoY, well below trend

— The four internals

Under the hood

Growth
Slowing
Score43.2 / 100
Momentum: Stable↑ +0.6 wk
Is the economy expanding or slowing. Jobs, output, spending.
Inflation
Firming
Score60.2 / 100
Momentum: Declining↑ +0.6 wk
How fast prices are rising, and whether the trend is up or down.
Financial Conditions
Neutral
Score52.5 / 100
Momentum: Rising↓ -0.3 wk
How tight money is. Yields, credit spreads, the cost of borrowing.
Geopolitical Shock
Moderate
Score35.0 / 100
Momentum: Falling↑ +2.5 wk
Stress from outside the model. Oil, war risk, market volatility.

— Leading / lagging

Firming or breaking down

Leading signals

Overheating28.9%

Fast-moving market and survey data. Where the economy may be heading.

Lagging signals

Overheating28.1%

Confirmed hard data. Where the economy demonstrably is.

Signal alignmentAligned

The two layers point the same way, which puts the call on firmer ground. Leading signals lean Overheating; lagging signals lean Overheating.

— What's next

Where it could go from here

Cooling23.0%Primary alternative
A transition to Cooling would require consumer sentiment to shift higher, crude oil to move higher, and capacity utilization to shift higher. consumer sentiment and capacity utilization are already near transition-compatible levels. Assumes other conditions remain constant.
- → consumer sentiment · small gap
- ↓ crude oil ($) · moderate gap
- → capacity utilization (%) · small gap
- → nonfarm payrolls (3mo avg chg, K) · small gap
- ↑ HY spread (%) · small gap
Contraction20.0%Credible alternative
A transition to Contraction would require headline CPI to move significantly lower, core PCE to move significantly lower, and consumer sentiment to move significantly lower. Momentum is broadly moving in the right direction, but gaps remain. HY spread is already near transition-compatible levels. Assumes other conditions remain constant.
- ↓ headline CPI (YoY %) · large gap
- ↓ core PCE (YoY %) · large gap
- → consumer sentiment · large gap
- ↓ wage growth (YoY %) · large gap
- ↑ HY spread (%) · small gap
Soft Landing15.8%Credible alternative
A transition to Soft Landing would require headline CPI to shift lower, core PCE to shift lower, and consumer sentiment to shift higher. Momentum is broadly moving in the right direction, but gaps remain. headline CPI and core PCE are already near transition-compatible levels. Assumes other conditions remain constant.
- ↓ headline CPI (YoY %) · small gap
- ↓ core PCE (YoY %) · small gap
- → consumer sentiment · small gap
- ↓ crude oil ($) · moderate gap
- ↑ HY spread (%) · small gap

— Drivers

What held the call up

Confirming

Points that support the current regime call

headline CPI at 4.2% YoY, sharply higher
core PCE at 3.4% YoY, well above trend
retail sales +6.9% YoY, above trend

Disconfirming

Points that argue against it

consumer sentiment at 44.8, sharply lower
crude oil at $71, -21.0% over 20 days

Market confirmationMixed

Confirming

S&P 500, high-yield credit spreads

Diverging

10-year Treasury yield, WTI crude oil

— Asset implications

What this regime has meant for markets

The engine’s read, by asset class

EquitiesCautious, late-cycle risk
Growth is running hot but firming inflation and neutral financial conditions cap the upside for equities.
RatesYields biased higher
Declining inflation keeps yields biased higher as the Fed stays on hold.
CreditCarry positive, spreads uncertain
Solid growth supports carry, but firming inflation creates spread uncertainty.
DollarUSD firm
Firming inflation and firm growth keep the dollar supported.
GoldRange-bound
Gold is range-bound as strong growth offsets the inflation bid.
OilConstructive
Strong demand and the Hormuz blockade keep oil constructive.

How assets behaved historically in Overheating

Annualized figures across every past day the model scored this regime. History, not a forecast.

Asset	Ann. return	Volatility	Sharpe
Nasdaq 100QQQ	+27.1%	19.5%	1.39
S&P 500SPY	+17.5%	14.5%	1.21
GoldGLD	+12.4%	15.3%	0.81
Emerging MarketsVWO	+12.4%	17.5%	0.71
Developed MarketsVEA	+7.1%	14.9%	0.48
Russell 2000IWM	+5.8%	19.2%	0.30
HY CorporateHYG	+5.1%	4.7%	1.09
TIPSTIP	+4.3%	4.0%	1.08
IG CorporateLQD	+3.2%	5.5%	0.58
7-10Y TreasuryIEF	+2.2%	5.2%	0.42
EnergyXLE	-4.6%	23.5%	-0.20

Nasdaq 100
Vol 19.5% · Sharpe 1.39
+27.1%
S&P 500
Vol 14.5% · Sharpe 1.21
+17.5%
Gold
Vol 15.3% · Sharpe 0.81
+12.4%
Emerging Markets
Vol 17.5% · Sharpe 0.71
+12.4%
Developed Markets
Vol 14.9% · Sharpe 0.48
+7.1%
Russell 2000
Vol 19.2% · Sharpe 0.30
+5.8%
HY Corporate
Vol 4.7% · Sharpe 1.09
+5.1%
TIPS
Vol 4.0% · Sharpe 1.08
+4.3%
IG Corporate
Vol 5.5% · Sharpe 0.58
+3.2%
7-10Y Treasury
Vol 5.2% · Sharpe 0.42
+2.2%
Energy
Vol 23.5% · Sharpe -0.20
-4.6%

Sources & method

Every number on this page is produced by the Personal Stakes US macro engine and read straight from its published output. The website does not recompute the model, re-rank regimes, or invent values. Where a figure is missing, the section is left out rather than guessed.

Reference date: July 9, 2026
Data as of: 2026-07-09 00:00 UTC
Run trigger: major macro release