Historical snapshot

This is the regime read as it stood on July 13, 2026, from that day’s model output. See today’s regime →

— US Macro RegimeAs of July 13, 2026
Leading regime

Overheating

32.0%probabilityConfidence: Moderate

Too hot. Growth and prices both running warm, which keeps the Fed in the room.

Closest alternative: Cooling at 23.9% · Overheating +3.2 pts on the day

All five regimes

  • CoolingRunner-up23.9%
  • Soft Landing16.2%
  • OverheatingLeading32.0%
  • Inflation Shock14.6%
  • Contraction13.3%
Freshness

This snapshot is more than a day old. The next engine run refreshes it. As of July 13, 2026.

The US macro picture points to Overheating (32% probability, moderate confidence), with Cooling as the main alternative at 24%. Growth is slowing, inflation is firming, and geopolitical shock is moderate. The main tension comes from consumer sentiment at 44.8, sharply lower.

— What changed

What moved that day

majorBiggest move

Regime call changed from Contraction to Overheating

Quantitative moves in the top 10% historically. The model is repricing significantly. Compared with July 6, 2026 (5 sessions ago).

  • majorCooling up 2.1% to 23.9% (was 21.8%)
  • majorOverheating up 7.4% to 32.0% (was 24.6%)
  • majorContraction down 12.8% to 13.3% (was 26.1%)
  • majorEquities stance changed from Risk-off to Cautious, late-cycle risk
  • majorRates stance changed from Rally, yields falling to Yields biased higher
  • majorCredit stance changed from Spreads widening to Carry positive, spreads uncertain
  • majorDollar stance changed from Strong USD, safe haven to USD firm
  • majorGold stance changed from Positive but conflicted to Range-bound
  • majorOil stance changed from Demand collapse, bearish to Constructive
  • majorWTI crude oil flipped from confirming to diverging
  • major10-year Treasury yield flipped from diverging to confirming
  • majorhigh-yield credit spreads flipped from diverging to confirming
  • moderateSoft Landing up 1.7% to 16.2% (was 14.5%)
  • moderateInflation Shock up 1.6% to 14.6% (was 13.0%)
  • moderateFinancial conditions momentum shifted from stable to rising
  • moderateGeopolitical shock score up 3.6 to 36.3 (was 32.7)
  • moderateNew confirming driver: core PCE at 3.4% YoY, well above trend
  • moderateNew confirming driver: headline CPI at 4.2% YoY, sharply higher
  • moderateNew confirming driver: retail sales +6.9% YoY, above trend
  • moderateConfirming driver dropped: consumer sentiment at 44.8, sharply lower
  • moderateConfirming driver dropped: crude oil sharply lower
  • moderateConfirming driver dropped: wage growth at 3.5% YoY, well below trend

— The four internals

Under the hood

  • Growth

    Slowing

    Score43.2 / 100
    Momentum: Stable↑ +0.6 wk

    Is the economy expanding or slowing. Jobs, output, spending.

  • Inflation

    Firming

    Score60.7 / 100
    Momentum: Declining↑ +0.9 wk

    How fast prices are rising, and whether the trend is up or down.

  • Financial Conditions

    Neutral

    Score53.2 / 100
    Momentum: Rising↑ +0.4 wk

    How tight money is. Yields, credit spreads, the cost of borrowing.

  • Geopolitical Shock

    Moderate

    Score36.3 / 100
    Momentum: Falling↑ +3.6 wk

    Stress from outside the model. Oil, war risk, market volatility.

— Leading / lagging

Firming or breaking down

Leading signals

Overheating38.7%

Fast-moving market and survey data. Where the economy may be heading.

Lagging signals

Overheating27.8%

Confirmed hard data. Where the economy demonstrably is.

Signal alignmentAligned

The two layers point the same way, which puts the call on firmer ground. Leading signals lean Overheating; lagging signals lean Overheating.

— What's next

Where it could go from here

  • Cooling23.9%Primary alternative

    A transition to Cooling would require consumer sentiment to shift higher, crude oil to move higher, and capacity utilization to shift higher. consumer sentiment and capacity utilization are already near transition-compatible levels. Assumes other conditions remain constant.

    • → consumer sentiment · small gap
    • ↓ crude oil ($) · moderate gap
    • → capacity utilization (%) · small gap
    • → nonfarm payrolls (3mo avg chg, K) · small gap
    • ↑ 10-year yield (%) · small gap
  • Soft Landing16.2%Credible alternative

    A transition to Soft Landing would require headline CPI to shift lower, core PCE to shift lower, and consumer sentiment to shift higher. Momentum is broadly moving in the right direction, but gaps remain. headline CPI and core PCE are already near transition-compatible levels. Assumes other conditions remain constant.

    • ↓ headline CPI (YoY %) · small gap
    • ↓ core PCE (YoY %) · small gap
    • → consumer sentiment · small gap
    • ↓ crude oil ($) · moderate gap
    • ↑ 10-year yield (%) · small gap

— Drivers

What held the call up

Confirming

Points that support the current regime call

  • headline CPI at 4.2% YoY, sharply higher
  • core PCE at 3.4% YoY, well above trend
  • retail sales +6.9% YoY, above trend

Disconfirming

Points that argue against it

  • consumer sentiment at 44.8, sharply lower
  • crude oil at $74, -16.9% over 20 days
Market confirmationPartially confirming

Confirming

S&P 500, 10-year Treasury yield, high-yield credit spreads

Diverging

WTI crude oil

— Asset implications

What this regime has meant for markets

The engine’s read, by asset class

  • EquitiesCautious, late-cycle risk

    Growth is running hot but firming inflation and neutral financial conditions cap the upside for equities.

  • RatesYields biased higher

    Declining inflation keeps yields biased higher as the Fed stays on hold.

  • CreditCarry positive, spreads uncertain

    Solid growth supports carry, but firming inflation creates spread uncertainty.

  • DollarUSD firm

    Firming inflation and firm growth keep the dollar supported.

  • GoldRange-bound

    Gold is range-bound as strong growth offsets the inflation bid.

  • OilConstructive

    Strong demand and the Hormuz blockade keep oil constructive.

How assets behaved historically in Overheating

Annualized figures across every past day the model scored this regime. History, not a forecast.

  • Nasdaq 100

    Vol 19.5% · Sharpe 1.39

    +27.1%

  • S&P 500

    Vol 14.5% · Sharpe 1.21

    +17.5%

  • Gold

    Vol 15.3% · Sharpe 0.81

    +12.4%

  • Emerging Markets

    Vol 17.5% · Sharpe 0.71

    +12.4%

  • Developed Markets

    Vol 14.9% · Sharpe 0.48

    +7.1%

  • Russell 2000

    Vol 19.2% · Sharpe 0.30

    +5.8%

  • HY Corporate

    Vol 4.7% · Sharpe 1.09

    +5.1%

  • TIPS

    Vol 4.0% · Sharpe 1.08

    +4.3%

  • IG Corporate

    Vol 5.5% · Sharpe 0.58

    +3.2%

  • 7-10Y Treasury

    Vol 5.2% · Sharpe 0.42

    +2.2%

  • Energy

    Vol 23.5% · Sharpe -0.20

    -4.6%
Sources & method

Every number on this page is produced by the Personal Stakes US macro engine and read straight from its published output. The website does not recompute the model, re-rank regimes, or invent values. Where a figure is missing, the section is left out rather than guessed.

Reference date
July 13, 2026
Data as of
2026-07-13 00:00 UTC
Run trigger
major macro release

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