Historical snapshot

This is the regime read as it stood on July 20, 2026, from that day’s model output. See today’s regime →

— US Macro RegimeAs of July 20, 2026

Leading regime

Overheating

28.3%probabilityConfidence: Low

Too hot. Growth and prices both running warm, which keeps the Fed in the room.

Closest alternative: Cooling at 24.0% · Overheating -0.2 pts on the day

All five regimes

CoolingRunner-up24.0%
Soft Landing22.6%
OverheatingLeading28.3%
Inflation Shock22.6%
Contraction2.5%

Freshness

This snapshot is more than a day old. The next engine run refreshes it. As of July 20, 2026.

The US macro picture points to Overheating (28% probability, low confidence), with Cooling as the main alternative at 24%. Growth is slowing, inflation is sticky, and geopolitical shock is moderate. The main tension comes from core cpi at 2.6% yoy, well below trend.

— What changed

What moved that day

majorBiggest move

Soft Landing up 6.4% to 22.6% (was 16.2%)

Quantitative moves in the top 10% historically. The model is repricing significantly. Compared with July 13, 2026 (5 sessions ago).

majorOverheating down 3.7% to 28.3% (was 32.0%)
majorInflation Shock up 8.0% to 22.6% (was 14.6%)
majorContraction down 10.8% to 2.5% (was 13.3%)
majorInflation shifted from firming to sticky (60.7 to 50.9)
majorS&P 500 flipped from confirming to diverging
majorhigh-yield credit spreads flipped from confirming to diverging
majorWTI crude oil flipped from diverging to confirming
moderateInflation momentum shifted from declining to falling
moderateFinancial conditions momentum shifted from rising to surging
moderateGeopolitical shock score up 7.0 to 43.3 (was 36.3)
moderateNew confirming driver: gasoline prices well above trend
moderateNew confirming driver: headline CPI at 3.5% YoY, above trend
moderateConfirming driver dropped: headline CPI at 4.2% YoY, sharply higher
moderateConfirming driver dropped: retail sales +6.9% YoY, above trend

— The four internals

Under the hood

Growth
Slowing
Score44.0 / 100
Momentum: Stable↑ +0.8 wk
Is the economy expanding or slowing. Jobs, output, spending.
Inflation
Sticky
Score50.9 / 100
Momentum: Falling↓ -9.8 wk
How fast prices are rising, and whether the trend is up or down.
Financial Conditions
Neutral
Score53.1 / 100
Momentum: Surging↓ -0.1 wk
How tight money is. Yields, credit spreads, the cost of borrowing.
Geopolitical Shock
Moderate
Score43.3 / 100
Momentum: Falling↑ +7.0 wk
Stress from outside the model. Oil, war risk, market volatility.

— Leading / lagging

Firming or breaking down

Leading signals

Overheating31.8%

Fast-moving market and survey data. Where the economy may be heading.

Lagging signals

Cooling29.1%

Confirmed hard data. Where the economy demonstrably is.

Signal alignmentDiverging

The two layers disagree, so the regime is contested. Leading signals lean Overheating; lagging signals lean Cooling. Leading signals typically lead the confirmed data by about 6 weeks.

— What's next

Where it could go from here

Cooling24.0%Primary alternative
A transition to Cooling would require core PCE to shift higher, core CPI to shift higher, and consumer sentiment to shift higher. Current momentum is working against this transition. core PCE and core CPI are already near transition-compatible levels. Assumes other conditions remain constant.
- ↓ core PCE (YoY %) · small gap
- ↓ core CPI (YoY %) · small gap
- → consumer sentiment · small gap
- ↑ 10-year yield (%) · small gap
- ↓ copper/gold ratio · small gap
Soft Landing22.6%Primary alternative
A transition to Soft Landing would require consumer sentiment to shift higher, capacity utilization to shift higher, and 10-year yield to shift higher. consumer sentiment and capacity utilization are already near transition-compatible levels. Assumes other conditions remain constant.
- → consumer sentiment · small gap
- → capacity utilization (%) · small gap
- ↑ 10-year yield (%) · small gap
- → nonfarm payrolls (3mo avg chg, K) · small gap
- ↓ copper/gold ratio · small gap
Inflation Shock22.6%Primary alternative
A transition to Inflation Shock would require core PCE to move significantly higher, core CPI to move significantly higher, and consumer sentiment to shift higher. Key gaps are large and momentum is moving away from transition-compatible levels. consumer sentiment is already near transition-compatible levels. Assumes other conditions remain constant.
- ↓ core PCE (YoY %) · large gap
- ↓ core CPI (YoY %) · large gap
- → consumer sentiment · small gap
- ↓ wage growth (YoY %) · large gap
- ↓ copper/gold ratio · moderate gap

— Drivers

What held the call up

Confirming

Points that support the current regime call

core PCE at 3.4% YoY, well above trend
gasoline prices well above trend
headline CPI at 3.5% YoY, above trend

Disconfirming

Points that argue against it

core CPI at 2.6% YoY, well below trend
consumer sentiment at 44.8, sharply lower

Market confirmationMixed

Confirming

10-year Treasury yield, WTI crude oil

Diverging

S&P 500, high-yield credit spreads

— Asset implications

What this regime has meant for markets

The engine’s read, by asset class

EquitiesCautious, late-cycle risk
Growth is running hot but sticky inflation and neutral financial conditions cap the upside for equities.
RatesYields biased higher
Falling inflation keeps yields biased higher as the Fed stays on hold.
CreditCarry positive, spreads uncertain
Solid growth supports carry, but sticky inflation creates spread uncertainty.
DollarUSD firm
Sticky inflation and firm growth keep the dollar supported.
GoldRange-bound
Gold is range-bound as strong growth offsets the inflation bid.
OilConstructive
Strong demand and the Hormuz blockade keep oil constructive.

How assets behaved historically in Overheating

Annualized figures across every past day the model scored this regime. History, not a forecast.

Asset	Ann. return	Volatility	Sharpe
Nasdaq 100QQQ	+27.1%	19.5%	1.39
S&P 500SPY	+17.5%	14.5%	1.21
GoldGLD	+12.4%	15.3%	0.81
Emerging MarketsVWO	+12.4%	17.5%	0.71
Developed MarketsVEA	+7.1%	14.9%	0.48
Russell 2000IWM	+5.8%	19.2%	0.30
HY CorporateHYG	+5.1%	4.7%	1.09
TIPSTIP	+4.3%	4.0%	1.08
IG CorporateLQD	+3.2%	5.5%	0.58
7-10Y TreasuryIEF	+2.2%	5.2%	0.42
EnergyXLE	-4.6%	23.5%	-0.20

Nasdaq 100
Vol 19.5% · Sharpe 1.39
+27.1%
S&P 500
Vol 14.5% · Sharpe 1.21
+17.5%
Gold
Vol 15.3% · Sharpe 0.81
+12.4%
Emerging Markets
Vol 17.5% · Sharpe 0.71
+12.4%
Developed Markets
Vol 14.9% · Sharpe 0.48
+7.1%
Russell 2000
Vol 19.2% · Sharpe 0.30
+5.8%
HY Corporate
Vol 4.7% · Sharpe 1.09
+5.1%
TIPS
Vol 4.0% · Sharpe 1.08
+4.3%
IG Corporate
Vol 5.5% · Sharpe 0.58
+3.2%
7-10Y Treasury
Vol 5.2% · Sharpe 0.42
+2.2%
Energy
Vol 23.5% · Sharpe -0.20
-4.6%

Sources & method

Every number on this page is produced by the Personal Stakes US macro engine and read straight from its published output. The website does not recompute the model, re-rank regimes, or invent values. Where a figure is missing, the section is left out rather than guessed.

Reference date: July 20, 2026
Data as of: 2026-07-20 00:00 UTC
Run trigger: major macro release