Historical snapshot

This is the regime read as it stood on July 22, 2026, from that day’s model output. See today’s regime →

— US Macro RegimeAs of July 22, 2026
Leading regime

Overheating

27.7%probabilityConfidence: Low

Too hot. Growth and prices both running warm, which keeps the Fed in the room.

Closest alternative: Inflation Shock at 25.0% · Overheating -0.2 pts on the day

All five regimes

  • Cooling23.3%
  • Soft Landing22.1%
  • OverheatingLeading27.7%
  • Inflation ShockRunner-up25.0%
  • Contraction1.9%
Freshness

This snapshot is more than a day old. The next engine run refreshes it. As of July 22, 2026.

The US macro picture points to Overheating (28% probability, low confidence), with Inflation Shock as the main alternative at 25%. Growth is slowing, inflation is sticky, and geopolitical shock is moderate. The main tension comes from core cpi at 2.6% yoy, well below trend.

— What changed

What moved that day

majorBiggest move

Soft Landing up 2.2% to 22.1% (was 19.9%)

Quantitative moves in the top 10% historically. The model is repricing significantly. Compared with July 15, 2026 (5 sessions ago).

  • majorOverheating down 2.4% to 27.7% (was 30.1%)
  • majorInflation Shock up 4.3% to 25.0% (was 20.7%)
  • majorContraction down 3.5% to 1.9% (was 5.4%)
  • majorWTI crude oil flipped from diverging to confirming
  • majorhigh-yield credit spreads flipped from diverging to confirming
  • moderateCooling down 0.6% to 23.3% (was 23.9%)
  • moderateGeopolitical shock score up 6.7 to 46.6 (was 39.9)

— The four internals

Under the hood

  • Growth

    Slowing

    Score44.0 / 100
    Momentum: Stable↑ +0.8 wk

    Is the economy expanding or slowing. Jobs, output, spending.

  • Inflation

    Sticky

    Score51.7 / 100
    Momentum: Falling↑ +1.8 wk

    How fast prices are rising, and whether the trend is up or down.

  • Financial Conditions

    Neutral

    Score53.0 / 100
    Momentum: Rising↓ -0.2 wk

    How tight money is. Yields, credit spreads, the cost of borrowing.

  • Geopolitical Shock

    Moderate

    Score46.6 / 100
    Momentum: Falling↑ +6.7 wk

    Stress from outside the model. Oil, war risk, market volatility.

— Leading / lagging

Firming or breaking down

Leading signals

Overheating31.5%

Fast-moving market and survey data. Where the economy may be heading.

Lagging signals

Cooling29.2%

Confirmed hard data. Where the economy demonstrably is.

Signal alignmentDiverging

The two layers disagree, so the regime is contested. Leading signals lean Overheating; lagging signals lean Cooling. Leading signals typically lead the confirmed data by about 6 weeks.

— What's next

Where it could go from here

  • Inflation Shock25.0%Primary alternative

    A transition to Inflation Shock would require core PCE to move significantly higher, core CPI to move significantly higher, and consumer sentiment to shift higher. Key gaps are large and momentum is moving away from transition-compatible levels. consumer sentiment is already near transition-compatible levels. Assumes other conditions remain constant.

    • ↓ core PCE (YoY %) · large gap
    • ↓ core CPI (YoY %) · large gap
    • → consumer sentiment · small gap
    • ↓ wage growth (YoY %) · large gap
    • ↓ copper/gold ratio · moderate gap
  • Cooling23.3%Primary alternative

    A transition to Cooling would require core PCE to shift higher, core CPI to shift higher, and consumer sentiment to shift higher. Current momentum is working against this transition. core PCE and core CPI are already near transition-compatible levels. Assumes other conditions remain constant.

    • ↓ core PCE (YoY %) · small gap
    • ↓ core CPI (YoY %) · small gap
    • → consumer sentiment · small gap
    • ↓ wage growth (YoY %) · small gap
    • ↑ 10-year yield (%) · small gap
  • Soft Landing22.1%Primary alternative

    A transition to Soft Landing would require consumer sentiment to shift higher, capacity utilization to shift higher, and 10-year yield to shift higher. consumer sentiment and capacity utilization are already near transition-compatible levels. Assumes other conditions remain constant.

    • → consumer sentiment · small gap
    • → capacity utilization (%) · small gap
    • ↑ 10-year yield (%) · small gap
    • → nonfarm payrolls (3mo avg chg, K) · small gap
    • ↓ copper/gold ratio · small gap

— Drivers

What held the call up

Confirming

Points that support the current regime call

  • core PCE at 3.4% YoY, well above trend
  • gasoline prices well above trend
  • headline CPI at 3.5% YoY, above trend

Disconfirming

Points that argue against it

  • core CPI at 2.6% YoY, well below trend
  • consumer sentiment at 44.8, sharply lower
Market confirmationStrongly confirming

Confirming

S&P 500, 10-year Treasury yield, high-yield credit spreads, WTI crude oil

Diverging

None

— Asset implications

What this regime has meant for markets

The engine’s read, by asset class

  • EquitiesCautious, late-cycle risk

    Growth is running hot but sticky inflation and neutral financial conditions cap the upside for equities.

  • RatesYields biased higher

    Falling inflation keeps yields biased higher as the Fed stays on hold.

  • CreditCarry positive, spreads uncertain

    Solid growth supports carry, but sticky inflation creates spread uncertainty.

  • DollarUSD firm

    Sticky inflation and firm growth keep the dollar supported.

  • GoldRange-bound

    Gold is range-bound as strong growth offsets the inflation bid.

  • OilConstructive

    Strong demand and the Hormuz blockade keep oil constructive.

How assets behaved historically in Overheating

Annualized figures across every past day the model scored this regime. History, not a forecast.

  • Nasdaq 100

    Vol 19.5% · Sharpe 1.39

    +27.1%

  • S&P 500

    Vol 14.5% · Sharpe 1.21

    +17.5%

  • Gold

    Vol 15.3% · Sharpe 0.81

    +12.4%

  • Emerging Markets

    Vol 17.5% · Sharpe 0.71

    +12.4%

  • Developed Markets

    Vol 14.9% · Sharpe 0.48

    +7.1%

  • Russell 2000

    Vol 19.2% · Sharpe 0.30

    +5.8%

  • HY Corporate

    Vol 4.7% · Sharpe 1.09

    +5.1%

  • TIPS

    Vol 4.0% · Sharpe 1.08

    +4.3%

  • IG Corporate

    Vol 5.5% · Sharpe 0.58

    +3.2%

  • 7-10Y Treasury

    Vol 5.2% · Sharpe 0.42

    +2.2%

  • Energy

    Vol 23.5% · Sharpe -0.20

    -4.6%
Sources & method

Every number on this page is produced by the Personal Stakes US macro engine and read straight from its published output. The website does not recompute the model, re-rank regimes, or invent values. Where a figure is missing, the section is left out rather than guessed.

Reference date
July 22, 2026
Data as of
2026-07-22 00:00 UTC
Run trigger
major macro release

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