Historical snapshot

This is the regime read as it stood on August 5, 2026, from that day’s model output. See today’s regime →

— US Macro RegimeAs of August 5, 2026

Leading regime

Overheating

26.1%probabilityConfidence: Low

Too hot. Growth and prices both running warm, which keeps the Fed in the room.

Closest alternative: Cooling at 25.9% · Overheating -0.3 pts on the day

All five regimes

CoolingRunner-up25.9%
Soft Landing25.3%
OverheatingLeading26.1%
Inflation Shock21.1%
Contraction1.6%

Freshness

This snapshot is more than a day old. The next engine run refreshes it. As of August 5, 2026.

The US macro picture points to Overheating (26% probability, low confidence), with Cooling as the main alternative at 26%. Growth is stable, inflation is sticky, and geopolitical shock is moderate. The main tension comes from core cpi at 2.6% yoy, well below trend.

— What changed

What moved that day

majorBiggest move

Cooling up 2.4% to 25.9% (was 23.5%)

Quantitative moves in the top 10% historically. The model is repricing significantly. Compared with July 29, 2026 (5 sessions ago).

majorSoft Landing up 2.9% to 25.3% (was 22.4%)
majorInflation Shock down 4.4% to 21.1% (was 25.5%)
majorGrowth shifted from slowing to stable (44.8 to 46.4)
majorS&P 500 flipped from diverging to confirming
moderateOverheating down 0.9% to 26.1% (was 27.0%)
moderateInflation score down 4.4 to 46.9 (was 51.3)
moderateFinancial conditions score down 2.9 to 52.0 (was 54.9)
moderateFinancial conditions momentum shifted from surging to rising
moderateGeopolitical shock score down 5.1 to 45.8 (was 50.9)
moderateGeopolitical shock momentum shifted from declining to falling
moderateNew confirming driver: core PCE at 3.3% YoY, above trend
moderateConfirming driver dropped: core PCE at 3.4% YoY, well above trend

— The four internals

Under the hood

Growth
Stable
Score46.4 / 100
Momentum: Stable↑ +1.6 wk
Is the economy expanding or slowing. Jobs, output, spending.
Inflation
Sticky
Score46.9 / 100
Momentum: Falling↓ -4.4 wk
How fast prices are rising, and whether the trend is up or down.
Financial Conditions
Neutral
Score52.0 / 100
Momentum: Rising↓ -2.9 wk
How tight money is. Yields, credit spreads, the cost of borrowing.
Geopolitical Shock
Moderate
Score45.8 / 100
Momentum: Falling↓ -5.1 wk
Stress from outside the model. Oil, war risk, market volatility.

— Leading / lagging

Firming or breaking down

Leading signals

Overheating30.0%

Fast-moving market and survey data. Where the economy may be heading.

Lagging signals

Cooling27.8%

Confirmed hard data. Where the economy demonstrably is.

Signal alignmentDiverging

The two layers disagree, so the regime is contested. Leading signals lean Overheating; lagging signals lean Cooling. Leading signals typically lead the confirmed data by about 6 weeks.

— What's next

Where it could go from here

Cooling25.9%Primary alternative
A transition to Cooling would require core CPI to shift higher, core PCE to shift higher, and wage growth to shift higher. Current momentum is working against this transition. core CPI and core PCE are already near transition-compatible levels. Assumes other conditions remain constant.
- ↓ core CPI (YoY %) · small gap
- ↓ core PCE (YoY %) · small gap
- ↓ wage growth (YoY %) · small gap
- ↑ 10-year yield (%) · small gap
- ↓ copper/gold ratio · small gap
Soft Landing25.3%Primary alternative
A transition to Soft Landing would require consumer sentiment to shift higher, initial claims to shift higher, and capacity utilization to shift higher. Momentum is broadly moving in the right direction, but gaps remain. consumer sentiment and initial claims are already near transition-compatible levels. Assumes other conditions remain constant.
- ↑ consumer sentiment · small gap
- ↑ initial claims (4-wk avg, K) · small gap
- ↑ capacity utilization (%) · small gap
- ↑ 10-year yield (%) · small gap
- ↓ copper/gold ratio · small gap
Inflation Shock21.1%Primary alternative
A transition to Inflation Shock would require core CPI to move significantly higher, core PCE to move significantly higher, and wage growth to move significantly higher. Key gaps are large and momentum is moving away from transition-compatible levels. 10-year yield is already near transition-compatible levels. Assumes other conditions remain constant.
- ↓ core CPI (YoY %) · large gap
- ↓ core PCE (YoY %) · large gap
- ↓ wage growth (YoY %) · large gap
- ↑ 10-year yield (%) · small gap
- ↓ copper/gold ratio · moderate gap

— Drivers

What held the call up

Confirming

Points that support the current regime call

core PCE at 3.3% YoY, above trend
headline CPI at 3.5% YoY, above trend
gasoline prices above trend

Disconfirming

Points that argue against it

core CPI at 2.6% YoY, well below trend
wage growth at 3.5% YoY, well below trend

Market confirmationMixed

Confirming

S&P 500, 10-year Treasury yield, WTI crude oil

Diverging

high-yield credit spreads

— Asset implications

What this regime has meant for markets

The engine’s read, by asset class

EquitiesCautious, late-cycle risk
Growth is running hot but sticky inflation and neutral financial conditions cap the upside for equities.
RatesYields biased higher
Falling inflation keeps yields biased higher as the Fed stays on hold.
CreditCarry positive, spreads uncertain
Solid growth supports carry, but sticky inflation creates spread uncertainty.
DollarUSD firm
Sticky inflation and firm growth keep the dollar supported.
GoldRange-bound
Gold is range-bound as strong growth offsets the inflation bid.
OilConstructive
Strong demand and the Hormuz blockade keep oil constructive.

How assets behaved historically in Overheating

Annualized figures across every past day the model scored this regime. History, not a forecast.

Asset	Ann. return	Volatility	Sharpe
Nasdaq 100QQQ	+27.1%	19.5%	1.39
S&P 500SPY	+17.5%	14.5%	1.21
GoldGLD	+12.4%	15.3%	0.81
Emerging MarketsVWO	+12.4%	17.5%	0.71
Developed MarketsVEA	+7.1%	14.9%	0.48
Russell 2000IWM	+5.8%	19.2%	0.30
HY CorporateHYG	+5.1%	4.7%	1.09
TIPSTIP	+4.3%	4.0%	1.08
IG CorporateLQD	+3.2%	5.5%	0.58
7-10Y TreasuryIEF	+2.2%	5.2%	0.42
EnergyXLE	-4.6%	23.5%	-0.20

Nasdaq 100
Vol 19.5% · Sharpe 1.39
+27.1%
S&P 500
Vol 14.5% · Sharpe 1.21
+17.5%
Gold
Vol 15.3% · Sharpe 0.81
+12.4%
Emerging Markets
Vol 17.5% · Sharpe 0.71
+12.4%
Developed Markets
Vol 14.9% · Sharpe 0.48
+7.1%
Russell 2000
Vol 19.2% · Sharpe 0.30
+5.8%
HY Corporate
Vol 4.7% · Sharpe 1.09
+5.1%
TIPS
Vol 4.0% · Sharpe 1.08
+4.3%
IG Corporate
Vol 5.5% · Sharpe 0.58
+3.2%
7-10Y Treasury
Vol 5.2% · Sharpe 0.42
+2.2%
Energy
Vol 23.5% · Sharpe -0.20
-4.6%

Sources & method

Every number on this page is produced by the Personal Stakes US macro engine and read straight from its published output. The website does not recompute the model, re-rank regimes, or invent values. Where a figure is missing, the section is left out rather than guessed.

Reference date: August 5, 2026
Data as of: 2026-08-05 00:00 UTC
Run trigger: major macro release