Historical snapshot

This is the regime read as it stood on August 11, 2026, from that day’s model output. See today’s regime →

— US Macro RegimeAs of August 11, 2026

Leading regime

Cooling

27.4%probabilityConfidence: Low

The economy is coming off the boil. Growth fades, price pressure fades with it.

Closest alternative: Soft Landing at 26.9% · Cooling +0.8 pts on the day

All five regimes

CoolingLeading27.4%
Soft LandingRunner-up26.9%
Overheating25.4%
Inflation Shock18.5%
Contraction1.8%

Freshness

This snapshot is more than a day old. The next engine run refreshes it. As of August 11, 2026.

The economy is in a Cooling regime at 27.4% probability with low confidence, as inflation remains sticky even while growth holds stable. Soft Landing is the main alternative at 26.9%, reflecting mixed signals between still-elevated price measures and signs of easing wage and core consumer price pressures. Financial conditions are neutral and geopolitical shock is moderate, with the 10-year yield at 4.7%, well above trend reinforcing the view that broader financing costs remain consistent with a cooling backdrop.

— What changed

What moved that day

majorBiggest move

Regime call changed from Overheating to Cooling

Quantitative moves in the top 10% historically. The model is repricing significantly. Compared with August 4, 2026 (5 sessions ago).

majorCooling up 2.1% to 27.4% (was 25.3%)
majorSoft Landing up 2.0% to 26.9% (was 24.9%)
majorInflation Shock down 3.4% to 18.5% (was 21.9%)
majorEquities stance changed from Cautious, late-cycle risk to Selective
majorRates stance changed from Yields biased higher to Yields biased lower
majorCredit stance changed from Carry positive, spreads uncertain to Spreads may widen
majorDollar stance changed from USD firm to Mild USD tailwind
majorGold stance changed from Range-bound to Positive, rate-cut tailwind
majorOil stance changed from Constructive to Weak demand signal
major10-year Treasury yield flipped from confirming to diverging
majorWTI crude oil flipped from confirming to diverging
majorgold flipped from diverging to confirming
majorhigh-yield credit spreads flipped from diverging to confirming
moderateOverheating down 1.0% to 25.4% (was 26.4%)
moderateInflation score down 2.5 to 44.8 (was 47.3)
moderateFinancial conditions momentum shifted from rising to stable
moderateGeopolitical shock score down 2.1 to 45.2 (was 47.3)
moderateNew confirming driver: the 10-year yield at 4.7%, well above trend
moderateConfirming driver dropped: gasoline prices above trend

— The four internals

Under the hood

Growth
Stable
Score46.1 / 100
Momentum: Stable↓ -0.3 wk
Is the economy expanding or slowing. Jobs, output, spending.
Inflation
Sticky
Score44.8 / 100
Momentum: Falling↓ -2.5 wk
How fast prices are rising, and whether the trend is up or down.
Financial Conditions
Neutral
Score51.0 / 100
Momentum: Stable↓ -1.8 wk
How tight money is. Yields, credit spreads, the cost of borrowing.
Geopolitical Shock
Moderate
Score45.2 / 100
Momentum: Falling↓ -2.1 wk
Stress from outside the model. Oil, war risk, market volatility.

— Leading / lagging

Firming or breaking down

Leading signals

Overheating29.0%

Fast-moving market and survey data. Where the economy may be heading.

Lagging signals

Soft Landing29.0%

Confirmed hard data. Where the economy demonstrably is.

Signal alignmentDiverging

The two layers disagree, so the regime is contested. Leading signals lean Overheating; lagging signals lean Soft Landing. Leading signals typically lead the confirmed data by about 6 weeks.

— What's next

Where it could go from here

Soft Landing26.9%Primary alternative
A transition to Soft Landing would require core CPI to shift higher, wage growth to shift higher, and consumer sentiment to shift higher. Current momentum is working against this transition. core CPI and wage growth are already near transition-compatible levels. Assumes other conditions remain constant.
- ↓ core CPI (YoY %) · small gap
- ↓ wage growth (YoY %) · small gap
- ↑ consumer sentiment · small gap
- ↑ 10-year yield (%) · small gap
- ↓ VIX · small gap
Overheating25.4%Primary alternative
A transition to Overheating would require core CPI to move significantly higher, wage growth to move significantly higher, and consumer sentiment to shift higher. Key gaps are large and momentum is moving away from transition-compatible levels. consumer sentiment and VIX are already near transition-compatible levels. Assumes other conditions remain constant.
- ↓ core CPI (YoY %) · large gap
- ↓ wage growth (YoY %) · large gap
- ↑ consumer sentiment · small gap
- ↓ core PCE (YoY %) · large gap
- ↓ VIX · small gap
Inflation Shock18.5%Credible alternative
A transition to Inflation Shock would require core CPI to move significantly higher, wage growth to move significantly higher, and core PCE to move significantly higher. Key gaps are large and momentum is moving away from transition-compatible levels. 10-year yield is already near transition-compatible levels. Assumes other conditions remain constant.
- ↓ core CPI (YoY %) · large gap
- ↓ wage growth (YoY %) · large gap
- ↓ core PCE (YoY %) · large gap
- ↑ 10-year yield (%) · small gap
- ↓ VIX · moderate gap

— Drivers

What held the call up

Confirming

Points that support the current regime call

core PCE at 3.3% YoY, above trend
headline CPI at 3.5% YoY, above trend
the 10-year yield at 4.7%, well above trend

Disconfirming

Points that argue against it

core CPI at 2.6% YoY, well below trend
wage growth at 3.2% YoY, sharply lower

Market confirmationMixed

Confirming

gold, high-yield credit spreads

Diverging

10-year Treasury yield, WTI crude oil

— Asset implications

What this regime has meant for markets

The engine’s read, by asset class

EquitiesSelective
Growth at 46.1 with stable momentum makes equity selection critical as the economy decelerates.
RatesYields biased lower
Stable growth and falling inflation favor duration as rate cuts become more likely.
CreditSpreads may widen
Slowing growth raises spread risk as earnings and debt coverage weaken.
DollarMild USD tailwind
Cooling growth provides a mild USD tailwind as capital seeks safety.
GoldPositive, rate-cut tailwind
Rate-cut expectations and stable growth support gold.
OilWeak demand signal
Weaker demand from stable growth offsets supply factors.

How assets behaved historically in Cooling

Annualized figures across every past day the model scored this regime. History, not a forecast.

Asset	Ann. return	Volatility	Sharpe
GoldGLD	+26.5%	14.0%	1.89
Nasdaq 100QQQ	+19.9%	21.6%	0.92
Emerging MarketsVWO	+18.7%	17.6%	1.06
Developed MarketsVEA	+17.6%	15.7%	1.12
Russell 2000IWM	+16.2%	20.8%	0.78
S&P 500SPY	+15.3%	16.3%	0.94
EnergyXLE	+12.6%	26.3%	0.48
HY CorporateHYG	+9.4%	8.2%	1.15
IG CorporateLQD	+9.3%	8.0%	1.15
7-10Y TreasuryIEF	+5.5%	7.5%	0.74
TIPSTIP	+4.9%	5.8%	0.84

Gold
Vol 14.0% · Sharpe 1.89
+26.5%
Nasdaq 100
Vol 21.6% · Sharpe 0.92
+19.9%
Emerging Markets
Vol 17.6% · Sharpe 1.06
+18.7%
Developed Markets
Vol 15.7% · Sharpe 1.12
+17.6%
Russell 2000
Vol 20.8% · Sharpe 0.78
+16.2%
S&P 500
Vol 16.3% · Sharpe 0.94
+15.3%
Energy
Vol 26.3% · Sharpe 0.48
+12.6%
HY Corporate
Vol 8.2% · Sharpe 1.15
+9.4%
IG Corporate
Vol 8.0% · Sharpe 1.15
+9.3%
7-10Y Treasury
Vol 7.5% · Sharpe 0.74
+5.5%
TIPS
Vol 5.8% · Sharpe 0.84
+4.9%

Sources & method

Every number on this page is produced by the Personal Stakes US macro engine and read straight from its published output. The website does not recompute the model, re-rank regimes, or invent values. Where a figure is missing, the section is left out rather than guessed.

Reference date: August 11, 2026
Data as of: 2026-08-11 00:00 UTC
Run trigger: major macro release