Historical snapshot

This is the regime read as it stood on August 20, 2026, from that day’s model output. See today’s regime →

— US Macro RegimeAs of August 20, 2026

Leading regime

Soft Landing

29.3%probabilityConfidence: Low

The rare good outcome. Inflation drifts down without the job market breaking.

Closest alternative: Cooling at 28.6% · Soft Landing -0.7 pts on the day

All five regimes

CoolingRunner-up28.6%
Soft LandingLeading29.3%
Overheating23.8%
Inflation Shock15.7%
Contraction2.6%

Freshness

This snapshot is more than a day old. The next engine run refreshes it. As of August 20, 2026.

The economy is in a Soft Landing regime at 29.3% probability with low confidence. Growth is slowing and inflation is easing, with financial conditions neutral and geopolitical shock moderate — a combination consistent with an economy that is decelerating without breaking down. Cooling is the main alternative at 28.6%, as initial jobless claims at 204K (4-week avg), above trend shows the labor market still holding up while core CPI at 2.5% YoY, sharply lower and wage growth at 3.2% YoY, sharply lower suggest cooling pressures may be stronger than the top regime alone would indicate.

— What changed

What moved that day

majorBiggest move

Growth shifted from stable to slowing (45.9 to 43.8)

Quantitative moves below the historical median. The model's reading is stable, which may itself be the signal. Compared with August 13, 2026 (5 sessions ago).

majorhigh-yield credit spreads flipped from confirming to diverging
major10-year Treasury yield flipped from diverging to confirming
moderateCooling up 0.5% to 28.6% (was 28.1%)
moderateInflation Shock down 1.0% to 15.7% (was 16.7%)
moderateContraction up 0.6% to 2.6% (was 2.0%)
moderateFinancial conditions momentum shifted from stable to declining
moderateNew confirming driver: initial jobless claims at 204K (4-week avg), above trend
moderateConfirming driver dropped: initial jobless claims at 199K (4-week avg), above trend

— The four internals

Under the hood

Growth
Slowing
Score43.8 / 100
Momentum: Stable↓ -2.1 wk
Is the economy expanding or slowing. Jobs, output, spending.
Inflation
Easing
Score39.2 / 100
Momentum: Falling↓ -0.3 wk
How fast prices are rising, and whether the trend is up or down.
Financial Conditions
Neutral
Score48.9 / 100
Momentum: Declining↓ -1.9 wk
How tight money is. Yields, credit spreads, the cost of borrowing.
Geopolitical Shock
Moderate
Score45.7 / 100
Momentum: Falling↑ +0.7 wk
Stress from outside the model. Oil, war risk, market volatility.

— Leading / lagging

Firming or breaking down

Leading signals

Overheating30.0%

Fast-moving market and survey data. Where the economy may be heading.

Lagging signals

Soft Landing36.0%

Confirmed hard data. Where the economy demonstrably is.

Signal alignmentDiverging

The two layers disagree, so the regime is contested. Leading signals lean Overheating; lagging signals lean Soft Landing. Leading signals typically lead the confirmed data by about 6 weeks.

— What's next

Where it could go from here

Cooling28.6%Primary alternative
A transition to Cooling would require core CPI to move higher, wage growth to move higher, and consumer sentiment to shift higher. Current momentum is working against this transition. consumer sentiment and 10-year yield are already near transition-compatible levels. Assumes other conditions remain constant.
- ↓ core CPI (YoY %) · moderate gap
- ↓ wage growth (YoY %) · moderate gap
- → consumer sentiment · small gap
- ↓ 10-year yield (%) · small gap
- ↓ VIX · small gap
Overheating23.8%Primary alternative
A transition to Overheating would require core CPI to move significantly higher, wage growth to move significantly higher, and consumer sentiment to shift higher. Key gaps are large and momentum is moving away from transition-compatible levels. consumer sentiment and VIX are already near transition-compatible levels. Assumes other conditions remain constant.
- ↓ core CPI (YoY %) · large gap
- ↓ wage growth (YoY %) · large gap
- → consumer sentiment · small gap
- ↓ core PCE (YoY %) · large gap
- ↓ VIX · small gap
Inflation Shock15.7%Credible alternative
A transition to Inflation Shock would require core CPI to move significantly higher, wage growth to move significantly higher, and consumer sentiment to shift higher. Key gaps are large and momentum is moving away from transition-compatible levels. consumer sentiment and 10-year yield are already near transition-compatible levels. Assumes other conditions remain constant.
- ↓ core CPI (YoY %) · large gap
- ↓ wage growth (YoY %) · large gap
- → consumer sentiment · small gap
- ↓ 10-year yield (%) · small gap
- ↓ VIX · moderate gap

— Drivers

What held the call up

Confirming

Points that support the current regime call

core PCE at 3.3% YoY, above trend
the 10-year yield at 4.7%, well above trend
initial jobless claims at 204K (4-week avg), above trend

Disconfirming

Points that argue against it

core CPI at 2.5% YoY, sharply lower
wage growth at 3.2% YoY, sharply lower

Market confirmationMixed

Confirming

S&P 500, 10-year Treasury yield

Diverging

high-yield credit spreads

— Asset implications

What this regime has meant for markets

The engine’s read, by asset class

EquitiesConstructive
Growth is stable and inflation is contained, creating a constructive backdrop for equities.
RatesDuration-friendly
Balanced growth and inflation keep yields range-bound with a duration-friendly bias.
CreditSpreads stable
Stable growth and contained inflation support tight spreads.
DollarUSD range-bound
Balanced conditions leave the dollar range-bound without a strong directional catalyst.
GoldRange-bound
Without a strong inflation or recession signal, gold trades range-bound.
OilBalanced
Balanced supply and demand leave oil without a strong directional catalyst.

How assets behaved historically in Soft Landing

Annualized figures across every past day the model scored this regime. History, not a forecast.

Asset	Ann. return	Volatility	Sharpe
EnergyXLE	+18.1%	23.9%	0.76
Nasdaq 100QQQ	+15.5%	16.5%	0.94
Russell 2000IWM	+14.3%	17.8%	0.81
GoldGLD	+12.7%	17.6%	0.72
S&P 500SPY	+12.6%	11.8%	1.07
Developed MarketsVEA	+11.0%	12.0%	0.92
Emerging MarketsVWO	+8.5%	14.2%	0.60
HY CorporateHYG	+4.6%	4.4%	1.04
IG CorporateLQD	+2.2%	5.8%	0.38
TIPSTIP	+2.0%	4.0%	0.51
7-10Y TreasuryIEF	+0.9%	5.4%	0.16

Energy
Vol 23.9% · Sharpe 0.76
+18.1%
Nasdaq 100
Vol 16.5% · Sharpe 0.94
+15.5%
Russell 2000
Vol 17.8% · Sharpe 0.81
+14.3%
Gold
Vol 17.6% · Sharpe 0.72
+12.7%
S&P 500
Vol 11.8% · Sharpe 1.07
+12.6%
Developed Markets
Vol 12.0% · Sharpe 0.92
+11.0%
Emerging Markets
Vol 14.2% · Sharpe 0.60
+8.5%
HY Corporate
Vol 4.4% · Sharpe 1.04
+4.6%
IG Corporate
Vol 5.8% · Sharpe 0.38
+2.2%
TIPS
Vol 4.0% · Sharpe 0.51
+2.0%
7-10Y Treasury
Vol 5.4% · Sharpe 0.16
+0.9%

Sources & method

Every number on this page is produced by the Personal Stakes US macro engine and read straight from its published output. The website does not recompute the model, re-rank regimes, or invent values. Where a figure is missing, the section is left out rather than guessed.

Reference date: August 20, 2026
Data as of: 2026-08-20 00:00 UTC
Run trigger: major macro release