Historical snapshot

This is the regime read as it stood on September 4, 2026, from that day’s model output. See today’s regime →

— US Macro RegimeAs of September 4, 2026

Leading regime

Soft Landing

28.6%probabilityConfidence: Low

The rare good outcome. Inflation drifts down without the job market breaking.

Closest alternative: Cooling at 25.9% · Soft Landing -0.1 pts on the day

All five regimes

CoolingRunner-up25.9%
Soft LandingLeading28.6%
Overheating25.0%
Inflation Shock18.6%
Contraction1.9%

Freshness

This snapshot is more than a day old. The next engine run refreshes it. As of September 4, 2026.

The economy is in a Soft Landing regime at 28.6% probability with low confidence. Growth is slowing, inflation is easing, financial conditions are neutral, and geopolitical shock is moderate. Cooling is the main alternative at 25.9%, reflecting the tension between the confirming and disconfirming drivers identified by the model.

— What changed

What moved that day

majorBiggest move

Cooling down 2.3% to 25.9% (was 28.2%)

Quantitative moves above the 75th percentile. The model is responding to meaningful shifts in the data. Compared with August 28, 2026 (5 sessions ago).

majorInflation Shock up 3.0% to 18.6% (was 15.6%)
major10-year Treasury yield flipped from confirming to diverging
majorS&P 500 flipped from confirming to diverging
moderateSoft Landing down 0.9% to 28.6% (was 29.5%)
moderateOverheating up 0.9% to 25.0% (was 24.1%)
moderateContraction down 0.7% to 1.9% (was 2.6%)
moderateInflation momentum shifted from falling to declining
moderateFinancial conditions score up 2.7 to 51.5 (was 48.8)
moderateGeopolitical shock score up 3.7 to 50.3 (was 46.6)
moderateGeopolitical shock momentum shifted from stable to surging
moderateNew confirming driver: crude oil above trend
moderateNew confirming driver: the 10-year yield at 4.8%, well above trend
moderateConfirming driver dropped: initial jobless claims at 206K (4-week avg), above trend
moderateConfirming driver dropped: the 10-year yield at 4.7%, well above trend

— The four internals

Under the hood

Growth
Slowing
Score45.0 / 100
Momentum: Stable↑ +0.1 wk
Is the economy expanding or slowing. Jobs, output, spending.
Inflation
Easing
Score41.2 / 100
Momentum: Declining↑ +1.6 wk
How fast prices are rising, and whether the trend is up or down.
Financial Conditions
Neutral
Score51.5 / 100
Momentum: Stable↑ +2.7 wk
How tight money is. Yields, credit spreads, the cost of borrowing.
Geopolitical Shock
Moderate
Score50.3 / 100
Momentum: Surging↑ +3.7 wk
Stress from outside the model. Oil, war risk, market volatility.

— Leading / lagging

Firming or breaking down

Leading signals

Overheating31.5%

Fast-moving market and survey data. Where the economy may be heading.

Lagging signals

Soft Landing36.5%

Confirmed hard data. Where the economy demonstrably is.

Signal alignmentDiverging

The two layers disagree, so the regime is contested. Leading signals lean Overheating; lagging signals lean Soft Landing. Leading signals typically lead the confirmed data by about 6 weeks.

— What's next

Where it could go from here

Cooling25.9%Primary alternative
A transition to Cooling would require core CPI to move higher, wage growth to move higher, and core PCE to move higher. Current momentum is working against this transition. 10-year yield and HY spread are already near transition-compatible levels. Assumes other conditions remain constant.
- ↓ core CPI (YoY %) · moderate gap
- ↓ wage growth (YoY %) · moderate gap
- ↓ core PCE (YoY %) · moderate gap
- → 10-year yield (%) · small gap
- → HY spread (%) · small gap
Overheating25.0%Primary alternative
A transition to Overheating would require core CPI to move significantly higher, wage growth to move significantly higher, and core PCE to move significantly higher. Key gaps are large and momentum is moving away from transition-compatible levels. consumer sentiment and nonfarm payrolls are already near transition-compatible levels. Assumes other conditions remain constant.
- ↓ core CPI (YoY %) · large gap
- ↓ wage growth (YoY %) · large gap
- ↓ core PCE (YoY %) · large gap
- → consumer sentiment · small gap
- → nonfarm payrolls (3mo avg chg, K) · small gap
Inflation Shock18.6%Credible alternative
A transition to Inflation Shock would require core CPI to move significantly higher, wage growth to move significantly higher, and core PCE to move significantly higher. Key gaps are large and momentum is moving away from transition-compatible levels. 10-year yield and VIX are already near transition-compatible levels. Assumes other conditions remain constant.
- ↓ core CPI (YoY %) · large gap
- ↓ wage growth (YoY %) · large gap
- ↓ core PCE (YoY %) · large gap
- → 10-year yield (%) · small gap
- ↑ VIX · small gap

— Drivers

What held the call up

Confirming

Points that support the current regime call

core PCE at 3.3% YoY, above trend
the 10-year yield at 4.8%, well above trend
crude oil above trend

Disconfirming

Points that argue against it

core CPI at 2.5% YoY, sharply lower
wage growth at 3.1% YoY, sharply lower

Market confirmationPartially diverging

Confirming

high-yield credit spreads

Diverging

S&P 500, 10-year Treasury yield

— Asset implications

What this regime has meant for markets

The engine’s read, by asset class

EquitiesConstructive
Growth is stable and inflation is contained, creating a constructive backdrop for equities.
RatesDuration-friendly
Balanced growth and inflation keep yields range-bound with a duration-friendly bias.
CreditSpreads stable
Stable growth and contained inflation support tight spreads.
DollarUSD range-bound
Balanced conditions leave the dollar range-bound without a strong directional catalyst.
GoldRange-bound
Without a strong inflation or recession signal, gold trades range-bound.
OilBalanced
Balanced supply and demand leave oil without a strong directional catalyst.

How assets behaved historically in Soft Landing

Annualized figures across every past day the model scored this regime. History, not a forecast.

Asset	Ann. return	Volatility	Sharpe
EnergyXLE	+18.1%	23.9%	0.76
Nasdaq 100QQQ	+15.5%	16.5%	0.94
Russell 2000IWM	+14.3%	17.8%	0.81
GoldGLD	+12.7%	17.6%	0.72
S&P 500SPY	+12.6%	11.8%	1.07
Developed MarketsVEA	+11.0%	12.0%	0.92
Emerging MarketsVWO	+8.5%	14.2%	0.60
HY CorporateHYG	+4.6%	4.4%	1.04
IG CorporateLQD	+2.2%	5.8%	0.38
TIPSTIP	+2.0%	4.0%	0.51
7-10Y TreasuryIEF	+0.9%	5.4%	0.16

Energy
Vol 23.9% · Sharpe 0.76
+18.1%
Nasdaq 100
Vol 16.5% · Sharpe 0.94
+15.5%
Russell 2000
Vol 17.8% · Sharpe 0.81
+14.3%
Gold
Vol 17.6% · Sharpe 0.72
+12.7%
S&P 500
Vol 11.8% · Sharpe 1.07
+12.6%
Developed Markets
Vol 12.0% · Sharpe 0.92
+11.0%
Emerging Markets
Vol 14.2% · Sharpe 0.60
+8.5%
HY Corporate
Vol 4.4% · Sharpe 1.04
+4.6%
IG Corporate
Vol 5.8% · Sharpe 0.38
+2.2%
TIPS
Vol 4.0% · Sharpe 0.51
+2.0%
7-10Y Treasury
Vol 5.4% · Sharpe 0.16
+0.9%

Sources & method

Every number on this page is produced by the Personal Stakes US macro engine and read straight from its published output. The website does not recompute the model, re-rank regimes, or invent values. Where a figure is missing, the section is left out rather than guessed.

Reference date: September 4, 2026
Data as of: 2026-09-04 00:00 UTC
Run trigger: major macro release
Narrative: Prose written by a language model into a fixed template; all numbers are injected from the model output, never written by the model.